Close result or otherwise – its Kamala Harries to win

The polls during the US Presidential election 2024 have been unusually, and to my mind unrealistically static for two months – almost as if the pollsters are afraid to make a mistake and go out on a limb.

Well I am about to do so.

Have been following the campaign avidly, ever since Kamala Harries became the Democratic party candidate. Yes she faced odds against her - a woman, black and hampered by being closely allied with the Biden administration. Trump has relentlessly exploited those three facts on a daily basis with incredible degree of exaggeration, venom and untruths and in the last week his speeches at time been pretty wild and incoherent.

Harries is far more intelligent, coherent, experienced via her previous roles as lawyer, senator and attorney general and has easily overcome his jibes, insults and increasingly vitriolic comments. More often than not laughing about him That was evident in the only debate they had and that experience was enough for Trump to pull out of another other  planned encounter.

Trump has obvious personal, behavioural, moral and legal failings that have been very well rehearsed for years - plus in 2024 he is a criminal running for President! But none of that bothers his cult followers, evangelicals, majority of white males and rabid Republicans. But over the last week there is an undercurrent of distrust, tiredness with his divisiveness, the lying and general behaviour pervading through. Witness his rallies and the dwindling attendance. People are getting tired of his divisive, violent rhetoric as well. In addition there has been open discourse concerning his mental state, memory recall and cognitive well being.

So I reckon there are sufficient cohorts of ‘soft’ and ‘sensible’ Republicans who just quietly go about their business and will not vote for him plus non- aligned and independent. It’s also a question of where will the republicans supporters of Vikki Haley and Liz Cheney go.

One final word about the polls - for weeks they have been showing that it’s a very tight race with little movement in the levels of support for either candidate. That to my mind is unreal and open to doubt. Things are never as static as that in election campaigns. Pollsters have been too scared to be at variance with one another. But of course we practically always forget there is a 3-5% margin of error in every poll.

In the last week lot of scrutiny has surrounded the causes of this. Key reason is polling in US is not that reliable because too many outlets (especially Republican ones ) have their own agenda – they are not truly independent pollsters. Raw data is often adjusted to try and accommodate the pollsters’ hunches etc. Well, my hunch is that ‘soft’ Republicans/independents/women are not openly admitting their support for Harries when responding to polling. It is interesting to note that although the pollsters have been asserting for weeks that the result is too close to call, in the last few days however commentators are leaning towards a Harries win – from a narrow electoral college win to something more significant than that.

 The importance of how women will vote in the election and the reasons for doing so is well rehearsed and they probably could well be the deciding factor.

 Trump if he is in danger of losing as the votes are counted will make the country go through hell as he did in 2020, probably more so, because 2020 gave him and his followers a template to refine.

 So all in all without explaining further - it’s Kamala Harries to win.

 If I’m wrong God help the US governing system and its people; Europe and the world as well. Trump has made it clear how vindictive and vengeful he is going to be.

 

 

Recollections of 1974 as covered in our new book ‘Only Three Votes’ – the Battle for The Political Soul of Wales in 1970s Carmarthenshire.

Three events – 

Oath of Allegiance in Welsh language

Speaking Welsh in Assembly of the Council of Europe.

President of the Day, Eisteddfod Bro Myrddin August 1974 – 50 years to the day

With the launch of the book ‘Only Three Votes’ by Parthian held on Aug 9 at Storyville, Pontypridd during Eisteddfod week it brought back to mind events described in the book.

I have always looked back with satisfaction and not a little pride on my endeavours to visibly promote Welsh language and culture in 1974.

Two of them caused some consternation and annoyance within the executive of the Carmarthen constituency Labour Party as well a number of Welsh Labour MPs’ at Westminster. The third caused concerns and anger within Plaid Cymru in the constituency.

Taking the Oath of Allegiance in Welsh February 1974 - covered on page 103.

For some years there had been claims that after winning the by election in July 1966 Gwynfor Evans had taken the Oath of Allegiance in Welsh on entering Parliament but that wasn’t the case. For information, without taking the Oath an MP cannot take part in Commons proceedings.

After the 1970 General Election there was an influx of Welsh speaking Labour Members from Wales so we sought permission to take the Oath in Welsh and again was refused. Tom Ellis and I in late 1973 approached the Speaker and Clerks of the House making the case why it was appropriate and right for the Oath to be made in Welsh after the next election.

So it came to pass that an election was held in February 1974 and I retained Carmarthen by ‘Three Votes’. This time the ground work had been prepared regarding the Oath in Welsh. So February 1974 was the first time that the Oath was taken in Welsh in Parliament and several Welsh MPs did so.

Speaking Welsh in the Strasbourg Assembly of the Council of Europe May 1974 – pages 153 to 156

I won’t record here how it came about and what was the reaction in the Assembly at the time or more importantly the reaction afterwards. Best to read the book! Suffice it to say the idea was the brain child of John Smith MP (later the former Labour Party leader who tragically died prematurely). What happened hit the main new headlines back in UK Reaction within the party executive in Carmarthen and Welsh MPs' was not that favourable. However the pilot of the plane that flew the British delegation back to London, who came from Llanelli, was delighted.

Been a source of immense pride that I was the first politician to speak Welsh in an European Assembly gathering.

President of the Day, Eisteddfod Bro Myrddin, August 9 1974 – pages 139-141 and 164-166

Fifty years to the very day I delivered my speech as President of the Day. The decision of the Eisteddfod Committee was criticized by Plaid Cymru in Carmarthen and they made every effort to get the invitation overturned. It was always going to be futile because for decades  it was a tradition that the local MP if he/she was Welsh speaking would be invited to address the gathering. Again I won’t record here the events, what were the expectations and the reaction afterwards. Best to read the book! Other than a snippet from the Western Mail correspondent

‘we were all packed into the pavilion to hear what was he going to say’ ... ‘and what will happen?’

Treasured pages from memory - life is like a book; it has numerous chapters

 Just as the source of the Rivers Severn and Wye go back a long way so does the Tory annihilation

The sad premiership of Theresa May and Brexit party infighting;

Brexit and Covid-19 displayed all of the clownish, irresponsible, law-breaking premiership of Boris Johnson

 And then came the Liz Truss catastrophe;

The calmer but weak premiership of Rishi Sunak, coping with a divided party, he stood no chance

This election is about the revenge of the voters.

The source of the River Severn, just like the River Wye can be found in the Cambrian Mountains  before flowing down  to the Severn Estuary well over 200 miles away. It starts in a peat bog in Plynlimon before finally reaching the Bristol Channel. The source and course of the Wye is not too dissimilar, albeit a shorter river of some 150 miles, and reaches the Severn Estuary in Chepstow.

I’ve used the analogy as a way of describing how and why the Conservative party and Rishi Sunak in July 2024 are , if the polls are right, facing a catastrophe on  4^th July. In many ways its not entirely his fault but he’s been caught up since 2015 in a shambolic Tory party. Indeed it can be argued that the problems first appeared in the Cameron/Osborne years 2010-16. Cameron’s austerity years and his complete failure to face up to the euro sceptics inside his party and Farage’s UKIP planted the seeds of early discontent.

So it was that Cameron agreed to an EU referendum – by common understanding it was supposed to be ‘advisory’ – but after the result was announced on June 23 2016 and despite a highly divisive result it quickly became ‘the will of the people’. From then on the dye was cast and not only the political parties faced divisions and acrimony so Britain was broken. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain and though Wales voted to leave it was only by a majority no bigger than the crowd at the Principality Stadium  Instead of Staying and fighting Cameron and Osborne did a bunk leaving poor Theresa May with premiership years totally dominated by Brexit and an acrimonious party that was split into several competing ‘tribes’.

The austerity years wrought havoc with peoples’ lives and coming on top of a general feeling that the nations, regions and communities had been left behind was a golden opportunity of Johnson, Gove, Farage et al to exploit and so they did ruthlessly and misleadingly. Even May and Truss, pro remaining in  the EU as was Boris Johnson until he realised this was the path to becoming Premier joined this bandwagon. Unachievable promises were made   https://www.politico.eu/article/15-things-uk-vote-leave-promised-on-brexit-and-what-it-got/ and people desperate for ‘salvation’ understandably fell for this false vision of a brave new world outside the EU.

Theresa May, hounded by the euro sceptics who were beginning to smell blood with Boris Johnson manoeuvring behind the scenes decided to call a general election in 2017 and it turned out to be a disastrous campaign for her and the party. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40237833. She carried on with the support of the DUP but over the next two years Theresa May's government was defeated on 33 divisions in the House of Commons over Brexit leading to the resignation of Theresa May as Prime Minister and the appointment of Boris Johnson as the new prime minister on 24 July 2019. His slogan was ‘lets get Brexit done’ ‘lhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/bombastic-boris-johnson-wins-huge-majority-on-promise-to-get-brexit-done.. Of course it is true to say that in the then opposition leaders Jeremy Corbyn (Labour) and Jo Swinson (Lib Dem) he was confronted by two inadequate leaders of their parties.

Johnson found it difficult to get ‘Brexit done’ in the early stages of his premiership so eventually he took the drastic step to divide the Tory party even more by sacking over 20 of his MPs from the party – and pretty important people too, many had served as Cabinet Ministers even tin Maggie Thatcher’s time. Now he was in a stronger position and eventually Britain left the EU January 1 2020 but not before Johnson had made so many false claims over the deal he and Lord Frost had agrred with Brussels. In September 2019 he controversially asked the Queen to suspend Parliament for five weeks in the run up to the Brexit deadline and was accused of having lied to her over his  reasons. Then  the Supreme Court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful.

By now, although there had been several examples of senior people warning the Tory party not to elect him as leader because of his character, untrustworthiness, deceit 9both in his personal and political life) it was becoming understood that those warnings were not without foundation. His former Head teacher revealed some early signs of his behaviour and character, then Max Hastings in a withering critique went further. Others followed suit including Chris Patten, former Chairman of the Tory Party and the last Governor of Hong Kong who wrote that ‘Boris confuses fact and fiction’.

Whilst the Brexit controversy was coming to its end game in November 2019  news broke of a potential pandemic – Covid 19 – discovered first in Wuhan, China. The first case documented in the UK was on January 31 2020.  It is not my intention to retrace the entrails of Johnson’s lamentable performances over the next couple of years, save to mention partygate and the inquiry into did he deliberately mislead Parliament that eventually brought his downfall.

On September 6 2022 Boris Johnson was forced to resign in pretty ignominious circumstance with the majority of the members of his government resigning, something like 60 in all  – led in part by Rishi Sunak. Finally after an initial flurry of candidates In a subsequent leadership election Liz Truss became PM and her economic policy ideas allied with the Chancellor Kwasi  Kwarteng wrought havoc on the financial markets and more. Her  premiership only lasted 49 days, forced to resign on October 25 2022 and her reign coincided with period of the Queen’s death and mourning.

So now we’re getting into the Sunak premiership that has lasted some 21 months. Enough has been pored over during 2024 so don’t intent to  pursue in this blog But his premiership has been during the highest level of inflation people have suffered in a long time, ever increasing NHS waiting lists, public services under severe pressure, the dire state of the public finances and the national debt.  

Its been a dismal 14 years, chaotic so often over the years especially after 2015. If the polling is accurate and Labour has a super majority its the voters’ revenge for at least 8 years.

By now the Severn and Wye rivers have reached the sea!  Yet so many issues have not covered including levelling up and some of Sunak’s broken promises on migration, stopping the small boats and more.

Probably should have selected the River Danube or the Rhine as my starting point1

What's happening with the Gambling watchdog investigation?

The Met Police have clarified their situation

What about No 10 and the Politicos - because of necessity that's where the source trail started

I know, experienced it in 1970 - ‘’go back home now Gwynoro, Harold is announcing on Monday (27th) a General Election for June 18)’’

Could there possibly be some dragging of feet going on over the general election betting scandal to avoid any further embarrassment to the PM and No10 before July 4?

One of #RishiSunak's protection team has already been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office and the #MetPolice have confirmed that a further 6 officers have been identified as having placed bets on the timing of the elections.

On the political side it is also known that his former Parliamentsry Secretary, 4 other Tory election candidates/HQ staff and a Tory Senedd member in Wales are under investigation by the gambling watchdog over alleged bets on the timing of the General Election. Intriguingly Sunak’s PPS ( Craig Williams) and the Tory Senedd member (Russell George) represent the same constituency (Montgomeryshire).

However the #GamblingCommission are endeavouring to find out who else knew or were told in advance when the general election would be held.

By the very nature of things extensive discussions and analyses would have been going on for some time prior to May 22nd the day the PM announced that July 4 was to be election day. He did not just wake up on morning of 22nd and at the spur of the moment decided ‘tell you what think I’ll hold an election in six weeks time - July 4’

It’s not how it works. So people on the inside obviously knew and were in the loop. But the question is who were they and did they pass on the date via the old pals network with a nod and a wink!

In an attempt to get it clarified reported that the Gambling Commission has spoken to Rishi Sunak’s chief of staff (Liam Booth-Smith) to try and clarify who within the PMs circle at No10 and Tory HQ could have known about the date of the General Election before it was announced. Sunak has so far refused to publicly reveal who was in on the decision.

So issue now is could there possibly be more than just the 6 Tory politicos already identified in on all this. In fact there are reports in the media suggesting the final number could be up to 15 election candidates/officials. But this has not been confirmed yet.

As always time will tell.

For clarification the Gambling watchdog role is focused on allegations of cheating, while the Police are investigating could there be additional offences involved such as misconduct in public office - a more serious charge.

Tell you how I know how it works

In 1970 I was Labour candidate for Carmarthen and the Research and Communications Officer for Labour in Wales then based in Charles Street, Cardiff.

The Regional Secretary Emrys Jones, his two assistants and me were first given the nod that after the good results for the party in the May 1969 local elections, PM Harold Wilson was going to call a General Election for sometime mid June - but we were not given the exact date then. However this enabled us to book advertising hoarding sites, start preparing election material and alerting the 36 constituency party officers to start their own preparations.

On May 24-26 the Welsh party held its annual conference in Llandudno and I travelled up on the Friday. Later the evening of the 24th the General Secretary of the party, Ron Hayward, was present and he pulled me on one side - ‘’go back home now Gwynoro, Harold is announcing on Monday (27th) a General Election for June 18)’’ . The party regarded Carmarthen as a must win seat in Wales.

I immediately rang Ivor Morris, the party’s agent in the constituency asking him to call the Executive Committee to an urgent meeting for the Sunday afternoon to finalise our campaign. So at least 30 plus party members in Carmarthen were told the election date before Wilson actually announced it on the Monday. Daresay many others in key marginal seats across the country would have had the same inside information passed on to them.

So definitely it is more than highly probable a lot of Tory people would have known before hand of Sunak’s July 4 general election date - most certainly his PPS Craig Williams, the two Tory HQ officers that have been named by the gambling watchdog and one or two others inside No 10.

Its what they did with the information that matters.

To achieve a Sovereign Wales requires even more determined and relentless campaigning. BUT ....

Enough has been said and written, time for positive action

Time to set up something akin to citizen assemblies and most importantly establish a Wales Standing Convention.

Since the 1970s I was a strong advocate of a Federal U.K. and Home Rule for Wales. Joined Yes Cymru very early on in 2015 when membership was only starting to grow. Used to attend the AGMs. In 2016 spoke in two of its earliest rallies when the crowds back then were couple of hundred. The growth in membership and especially the unquestioned success of the AUOB rallies is a source of inspiration.

But these days it is also clear that the devolution settlement is not at all secure and since Brexit attempts made to undermine devolution. Then we have Boris Johnson calling it a ‘mistake’. Labour on the other hand speaks with a forked tongue and in recent times very ambivalent over future powers for the Senedd. The party's general election manifesto is pathetically weak on this, whilst in a recent interview the Shadow Welsh Secretary, Jo Stevens was pretty dismissive as well. I fear some return to a greater role for the Welsh Office in her thinking - that will be significant set back.

So things seem to be at a crossroads - with a high danger that nothing much will happen. The silence over what to do with the recommendations of the Independent Commission on future governance of Wales speaks volumes.

During the last decade I have been an advocate for a free and Sovereign Wales within the community of nations. The challenge is how to achieve this in the 21st century

Reality is that it took best part of 100 years for U.K. governments to recognise Wales as a land and nation and to even reach the point of a Senedd that has less powers than Scotland or indeed Northern Ireland.

What is more our Senedd is encumbered with financial and legal constraints placed upon it by Westminster. Looming over everything is the Sovereignty of the UK Parliament, conventions and legal rulings, and the absence of a written constitution.,

To achieve a Sovereign Wales will undoubtedly require even more determined and relentless campaigning.

Making a brief contribution in AUOB rally in Carmarthen is an honour and not only will it be a source of memories past but to impress on a much younger audience to hold firm to the faith; as post General Election Wales will face many challenges over its future governance but there also will be significant opportunities too as the years unfold. Building a structure and develop a roadmap that will lead to a Sovereign Wales is now essential. Engaging with the people on a wider forum than rallies.

We have gone through a five year period where the future of Wales has been talked about ad nauseum. There are more than sufficient articles, podcasts, videos, campaign rallies, Blogs, booklets, books and even Commission reports available for public consumption. In essence there is no more to be written or said on the various options to be considered over the future governance of Wales. What is urgently required now is ACTION.

Its time to set up something akin to citizen assemblies and most importantly establish a Wales Standing Convention to move forward. Bringing together representatives from civic society, local government, trade unions, academic institutions, voluntary and charitable organisations, and political organisations.

Issue is do we have the will to do this?