Seems like nothing has changed much
since the May 2015 General Election
Before the Final Welsh Barometer poll was published yesterday
evening I made my own seat forecast. I placed it on Facebook and Twitter.
My hunch was Labour –
27, Plaid Cymru – 14, Conservatives – 11, UKIP – 6 and Liberal Democrats – 2
Roger Scully’s final poll report findings indicated that I was out
by 2 on Plaid Cymru ( they were on 12) and also 2 on UKIP ( now on 8 )
So I was very pleased that my feelings about Welsh party politics
were in good order and I was not far off the mark!
In any case remember that these polls have a margin of error
of +/- 3%. In addition turnout will play a part and more importantly how will
the parties measure up in getting their core supporters out to vote.
So there could well be surprises later on in the early hours of Friday morning.
But what is interesting is that despite all the Assembly
deliberations, and the campaigning by all parties since last year’s General
Election, political opinion in Wales has not experienced significant upheavals.Of course the emergence of UKIP over the last few years has changed the political landscape.
After the May 2015 General Election I posted on my blog my views on the then state of Welsh politics under the heading ‘Wales remains Steady as she Goes after the Election’.
Roger Scully’s Barometer Poll end of June 2015 gave the following outcome
for Assembly Seats:
Labour – 29, Plaid Cymru – 10, Conservative – 13, UKIP – 7 and
Liberal Democrats – 1
Today is polling day so I will not delve further as to why
Wales remains so stagnant in its political opinions other than to highlight a recent
post I wrote headed ‘Welsh people far more interested in the EU Referendum than the Senedd election’
In that post I highlighted some reasons for this including:
‘Less than 5% of people in Wales read a Welsh newspaper
The Daily Mail is read more regularly by four times more people in Wales than the Western Mail
The Daily Mail is read more regularly by four times more people in Wales than the Western Mail
Although broadcasters in Wales reach a far greater proportion of people
than newspapers however UK news programmes predominate just like English based
newspapers do’
All food for thought as you all vote today.
My next few posts will I am sure deal with the
aftermath of tonight’s result. Without doubt we are we are in for interesting times!