‘Events
dear boy events’
‘A
week is a long time in politics’
The first was by Harold
Macmillan in answer to a question as to what is most likely to blow governments
of course. It is debated whether he just said it to a journalist or at the time
of the Profumo Affair or indeed to President Kennedy.
The second was by Harold
Wilson.
Both were wise and
experienced politicians who were indeed masters of their craft.
How appropriate the
quotations are in connection with what has happened the last six – eight weeks.
Theresa May was seemingly determined
to stick to her oft quoted remark (repeated some 5 -7 times) that there would
not be a snap election and that she would stay the course until 2020 and see
Brexit to a conclusion. Yet there was a lingering suspicion that she could succumb
to pressures from within the Tory hierarchy to take advantage of the parlous
state of the Labour Party and the weak showing in Parliament of its leader
Jeremy Corbyn. Also that UKIP was riven with internal difficulties, the Liberal
Democrats was finding it difficult to cross the 10% barrier along with reports
from Scotland that the SNP was on the slide with the Tories were making a
comeback.
It must have been as it proved to be too much of a tempting scenario indeed.
But how to create a
situation where Theresa could credibly change her mind? – Ah weekend walks in
Snowdonia that should do it.
I recall reading a speech
once by Lloyd George of when he was confronted with difficult decisions as he
often was. He would walk in the mountains of Snowdonia and he said something
along the lines that before climbing the weather was cloudy and misty but as he
got higher the skies would brighten and he could see more clearly.
So it was a ‘snap election’
was announced.
Everything looked well with
the world. According to opinion polls the Conservatives had a 20 points lead
and more, there was talk of a landslide majority in Parliament of between 100
and 200 seats and Mrs May had the highest satisfaction ratio with the
electorate since the mid years of Mrs Thatcher and the early years of Tony
Blair. Conversely Corbyn and his party were floundering, stuck in the 20%s.
Indeed the Tory strategists
decided let’s just campaign with Mrs May at the forefront – hence ‘my team’,
‘my candidates’, ‘my manifesto’ ‘give me a big majority’ ‘when I negotiate with
Brussels’ and on and on.
It was going to be a ‘Brexit
election’ and ‘give me my mandate’ campaign.
But ‘a week is a long time
in politics’! and the campaign started going wrong with an uncosted manifesto,
U-turn on social care and the dementia tax, lack of clarity on the ‘cap level’,
uncertainty over the arrangements for the winter fuel allowance. Yet worse was
to come because Mrs May did not want to participate in TV debates and was coming
up with all sort of spurious reasons for not participating. There was a clear strategy to give as little detail as possible and most certainly avoid answering
questions directly.
Off course after a while the
reason came very apparent, she is poor at explaining and debating when outside
her comfort zone and especially in an environment where she cannot control the
questioning and the like.
In fact Mrs May has had the
poorest campaign for a Tory leader since Sir Alec Douglas Home in 1964 and it
must have come as a terrible shock to the Tory grandees, the barons of the
right wing press and her cabinet colleagues. Because she is anything but a confident,
‘strong and stable‘ leader and is offering pretty much more of the same
economically and also as we move towards Brexit. Although on Brexit all we had
are platitudes, no detail just want ‘the best deal’ and ‘no deal is better than
bad deal’
Conversly Jeremy Corbyn has
clearly thrived on campaigning, enjoyed meeting people, addressing large
rallies and appearing human. In fact he has been a revelation to us all and not
least to his detractors in the party and the press. Also he has been helped by
a costed manifesto that is very popular. His message is being one of hope,
change and ending austerity. To be fair Labour has been somewhat clearer on Brexit
but they are quite a way away from the position of the other ‘progressive’
parties and certainly the Lib Dems.
However, in the midst of it
all came ‘events dear boy, events’ – the terror attacks in Manchester and
London and the inevitable politicking about how secure are our streets after all,
the extent of the police and security service cutbacks over the last seven
years, the causes of this this extremism visited upon our country and the
effectiveness of surveillance arrangements.
In this situation it was
inevitable that attention was drawn to Jeremy Corbyn’s actions, speeches and
who he met with the 1980s and for some 20 years after. He was open to many personal attacks by
the media and the Tory party on that and his views on nuclear weapons.
However
whatever his shortcomings in all of that there has emerged a more serious
question mark and that is over the seven years that Mrs May has been in charge
of security matters as Home Secretary and Prime Minister. Awkward questions are
being asked.
So with four days to go I am
still of the view that it is all to play for – but more of this in the next
post very soon.