A Welsh Constitutional Convention, Labour and Plaid Cymru leadership elections,YesCymru and Independence

How to get to the settled will of the Welsh people? A broad based Welsh Constitutional Convention is needed within months—not 2021.

Of course Eluned Morgan should be on the Labour ballot paper

On the Plaid leadership election—I see little point in Plaid Cymru members replacing Leanne Wood with Adam Price as they are pretty much 'birds of a feather'.

In a previous article I referred to differing aspects of the various parties’ leadership elections in Wales since November 2017. Certainly and maybe fittingly given their current, respective weak positions in the Welsh political discourse, the Welsh Lib-Dems and UKIP elections were both low profile affairs—pretty much ignored by the media. The Welsh Tories received some attention but did not fare substantially better on the ‘airwaves’.

Frustratingly, the Welsh Labour leadership contest has been preoccupied with which voting methods should be used and whether there is space for more than the two candidates already declared. Properly and not before time the Welsh party has at long last settled in favour of OMOV—the 'one member one vote' method. Interestingly, it was disagreement over OMOV, Europe and Militant that in 1981 led to the establishment of the SDP. It’s deja vu time alright!

On the matter of candidate selection for the Welsh Labour leadership contest, it is inconceivable that Eluned Morgan does not get the one further nomination required to enter the race. Eluned enhances and widens the choice for Labour members and her inclusion on the ballot paper will confirm that the party truly believes in equality and diversity. Beyond that she is an impressive, progressive and inclusive politician.Surely, there must be one Labour AM in the Senedd who realises the importance of her involvement in the interests of Welsh democracy?  After all it only requires one of Mark Drakeford's 15 nominees to do the deed and the matter will be resolved. Failing to do so will be revealing and a gross misjudgement on the part of Labour AMs. 

The Plaid Cymru contest, on the other hand, is a fully blown, open, vociferous and highly charged affair, which is beneficial for the party. After all, this election will dictate its future direction and positioning, with opportunities to change and freshen significantly its personnel, campaigning style and policy profile to attract a wider base of voters.

There are, as highlighted in my previous article, many questions the party’s membership must face in making their choice of leader, including their stance on independence. This issue has been elevated to near top of the agenda during the contest, which is to be welcomed as Plaid has ignored or played down the debate for decades—certainly after Gwynfor Evans's time.

Recently, I came across a comparative analysis of how often the SNP and Plaid Cymru have highlighted independence in their various party manifestos since 1997. The SNP referred to it almost 50 times between 1997 and 2017 whilst Plaid Cymru did so on 15 occasions. From 2000 to 2011, a period encompassing Adam Price’s influential time as an MP, and also I suspect an active organiser of campaigning, Plaid Cymru mentioned independence only 5 times in its manifestos!

In the last fortnight, as part of the leadership contest, Adam—now back in politics—highlighted his plan for moving towards the ultimate aim of a referendum on Welsh Independence by 2030, which I did not find particularly ambitious, inspiring or realistic as a strategy. I have a perception that Leanne more or less agrees with this approach. It is another example of why I tend towards the opinion that there is little point in Plaid Cymru members replacing Leanne Wood with Adam Price. In reality they 'are birds of a feather’.

Adam's stated plan depends entirely on Plaid Cymru being a more dominant, if not paramount, force in the Senedd after the 2021 and 2026 elections. A tall order indeed from where the party is now, and severely limiting in terms of possible involvement by other political stakeholders in Wales. Further, his timescale for establishing a Constitutional Convention is too long, seemingly set at post-2021. 

When I spoke at the 2016 launch of the Yes Cymru campaign in Carmarthen on the 50th anniversary of Gwynfor Evans's by election victory of 1966, I emphasised the importance of establishing a road map towards greater self-government and a sovereign Wales, drawing on collegiate campaigning and nuanced statecraft. Adam has created his plan based seemingly on zero-sum outcomes which presents inherent weaknesses—lacking a coherent approach in developing a consensus for reform amongst the population as a whole.

Further, I believe that Leanne Wood has called for the creation of an umbrella organisation to highlight the independence debate amongst the Welsh public. In response to which Yes Cymru has stressed that it is indeed already that organisation.  Whilst it is the case that Yes Cymru includes people from all parties, as well as those who are not politically affiliated, possibly it remains unclear how sufficiently far removed some of its leading lights are from Plaid Cymru central.

But what is far more important in my judgement, is that Yes Cymru's primary focus presently should be to strengthen its organisation and structure, empowering it to continue growing as an effective campaigning force for independence.

I should also refer to the good work of Labour for an Indy Wales. It is crucial for Welsh Labour to be involved in these discussions. We must all remember that the two major constitutional changes in Wales over the last 50 or so years occurred at the time of the Harold Wilson and Tony Blair premierships (i.e. formation of the Welsh Office and Secretary of State, and introduction of the Welsh Assembly). A year or so ago, Gordon Brown came to Cardiff and spoke eloquently in support of a UK-wide Constitutional Convention ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFS1T7x_RDI&t=47s,) but we are still waiting for the Labour party to advance this agenda. Time is of the essence and Welsh Labour needs to proactively get its act together, rather than waiting passively for what might transpire at a UK level.

The other Plaid Cymru leadership candidate, Rhun ap Iorwerth has made some detailed and practical suggestions about how to successfully progress the party’s nation building aspirations—he sees a fundamental rethink of the relationship between the countries of the UK as a key part of building Welsh independence and has talked of wanting to oversee a Government-led study, a mature civic discussion across the whole of Wales and beyond as a means of striving towards that goal.

Significantly, this week’s S4C programme ‘Y Byd yn ei Le’ involving the three candidates settled matters for me. Rhun ap Iorwerth was positive, very strong and clearly showing the qualities needed to be party leader and First Minister, in time. Adam Price has had a reasonable campaign generally, but has sprinkled policy ideas about the place as if confetti, lacking a coherent strategy. No wonder Guto Harri, the programme’s presenter, referred to Adam as a risk—he is an ‘ideas’ person, which need filtering by others responsible, not a leader in his own right. To me he is one risk too far.  Leanne, on the other hand, seems to have lost the sparkle of some years ago and appears somewhat unhappy that a leadership contest is taking place at all.
  

With the uncertainties around Brexit, there is an increasing focus on how to advance the cause of self-government in Wales including the issue of sovereignty. I believe the best way forward is to set up a forum in Wales along the lines of the 1990s Scottish Constitutional Convention which was a broad based coalition, including representatives from all political parties, local authorities, trade unions and small businesses etc. with the purpose of fostering a spirit of inclusion, democratic dialogue and consensus aimed at establishing the 'settled will of the people'.

I also do not believe that it is possible to move from the current constitutional position to a final solution in one jump. Yes, I can see a situation developing over the next five years, especially post-Brexit, where Scotland could well be independent and exploration ongoing of a United Ireland, based on federal principles with two Parliaments north and south. Wales too must be ready hence my call for a Welsh Constitutional Convention forum.

I recommend we affirm:

·         A commitment to ensure increasing self-government for Wales as part of the wider nation-building process, and potentially to gain independence in due course, if desired by the people;

·         The continued need for close collaboration among the nations of Britain, notwithstanding the precise constitutional status of Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.

Of course, to progress this agenda, we need politicians who are unsatisfied with the crumbs of drip, drip devolution as regretfully has been the case hitherto. Brexit really does put the devolution settlement at risk. It is clear that over the last year new pressures are increasingly emerging which are threatening existing protocols and structures.

In 2018 we are a nation and territory ‘clinging-on’ in practically every aspect of our governance arrangements and, dare I say, national being. We need politicians who are capable of and willing to consider Wales as a land and nation in its own right, embracing all who live within the country. New organisational institutions, economic relationships and even mind-sets should be established and nurtured—all developed and promoted within a context of a reformed UK constitutional framework.

This vision demands politicians who appreciate the significance of diplomacy and statecraft skills, understanding that the bigger prize may still sit further along the road map in time, but it is also first and foremost important to put in place the necessary foundations to advance our nation-building journey and growth towards that greater self-government and sovereignty desired.

My advice is to attend to those short and mid-term opportunities and challenges as we steadily strive towards achieving the larger ambition.

.

A Welsh Constitutional Convention, Plaid Cymru leadership election and Independence

How to get to the settled will of the Welsh people? A broad based Welsh Constitutional Convention is needed within months.

On the Plaid leadership election—I see little point in Plaid Cymru members replacing Leanne Wood with Adam Price as they are pretty much 'birds of a feather'.

In a previous article, I referred to differing aspects of the various parties’ leadership elections in Wales since November 2017. Certainly and maybe fittingly given their current, respective weak positions in the Welsh political discourse, the Welsh Lib-Dems and UKIP elections were both low profile affairs—pretty much ignored by the media. The Welsh Tories received some attention but did not fare substantially better on the ‘airwaves’.

Frustratingly, the Welsh Labour leadership contest is presently preoccupied with which voting methods should be used and whether there is space for more than the two candidates already declared. So much is yet to be resolved before substantive debates can even begin.

The Plaid Cymru contest, on the other hand, is a fully blown, open, vociferous and highly charged affair, which is beneficial for the party. After all, this election will dictate its future direction and positioning, with opportunities to change and freshen significantly its personnel, campaigning style and policy profile to attract a wider base of voters.

There are, as highlighted in my previous article, many questions the party’s membership must face in making their choice of leader, including their stance on independence. This issue has been elevated to near top of the agenda during the contest, which is to be welcomed as Plaid has ignored or played down the debate for decades—certainly after Gwynfor Evans's time.

Recently, I came across a comparative analysis of how often the SNP and Plaid Cymru have highlighted independence in their various party manifestos since 1997. The SNP referred to it almost 50 times between 1997 and 2017 whilst Plaid Cymru did so on 15 occasions. From 2000 to 2011, a period encompassing Adam Price’s influential time as an MP, and also I suspect an active organiser of campaigning, Plaid Cymru mentioned independence only 5 times in its manifestos!

Last week, as part of the leadership contest, Adam highlighted his plan for moving towards the ultimate aim of a referendum on Welsh Independence by 2030, which I did not find particularly ambitious, inspiring or realistic as a strategy. I have a perception that Leanne more or less agrees with this approach. It is another example of why I tend towards the opinion that there is little point in Plaid Cymru members replacing Leanne Wood with Adam Price. In reality they 'are birds of a feather’.

Adam's stated plan depends entirely on Plaid Cymru being a more dominant, if not paramount, force in the Senedd after the 2021 and 2026 elections. A tall order indeed from where the party is now, and severely limiting in terms of possible involvement by other political stakeholders in Wales.

When I spoke at the 2016 launch of the Yes Cymru campaign in Carmarthen on the 50th anniversary of Gwynfor Evans's by election victory of 1966, I emphasised the importance of establishing a road map towards greater self-government and a sovereign Wales, drawing on collegiate campaigning and nuanced statecraft. Adam has created his plan based seemingly on zero-sum outcomes which presents inherent weaknesses—lacking a coherent approach in developing a consensus for reform amongst the population as a whole.




Further, I believe that Leanne Wood has called for the creation of an umbrella organisation to highlight the independence debate amongst the Welsh public. In response to which Yes Cymru has stressed that it is indeed already that organisation with some 1000 members and some 10,000 followers on Twitter —Plaid Cymru at present has 8,000.  Whilst it is the case that Yes Cymru includes people from all parties, as well as those who are not politically affiliated, possibly it remains unclear how sufficiently far removed some of its leading lights are from Plaid Cymru central.

But what is far more important in my judgement, is that Yes Cymru's primary focus presently should be to strengthen its organisation and structure, empowering it to continue growing as an effective campaigning force for independence.

I should also refer to the good work of Labour for an Indy Wales. It is crucial for Welsh Labour to be involved in these discussions. We must all remember that the two major constitutional changes in Wales over the last 50 or so years occurred at the time of the Harold Wilson and Tony Blair premierships (i.e. formation of the Welsh Office and Secretary of State, and introduction of the Welsh Assembly). A year or so ago, Gordon Brown came to Cardiff and spoke eloquently in support of a UK-wide Constitutional Convention, but we are still waiting for the Labour party to advance this agenda. Time is of the essence and Welsh Labour needs to proactively get its act together, rather than waiting passively for what might transpire at a UK level.

The other Plaid Cymru leadership candidate, Rhun ap Iorwerth has made some detailed and practical suggestions about how to successfully progress the party’s nation building aspirations—he sees a fundamental rethink of the relationship between the countries of the UK as a key part of building Welsh independence and has talked of wanting to oversee a Government-led study, a mature civic discussion across the whole of Wales and beyond as a means of striving towards that goal.

With the uncertainties around Brexit, there is an increasing focus on how to advance the cause of self-government in Wales including the issue of sovereignty. I believe the best way forward is to set up a forum in Wales along the lines of the 1990s Scottish Constitutional Convention which was a broad based coalition, including representatives from all political parties, local authorities, trade unions and small businesses etc. with the purpose of fostering a spirit of inclusion, democratic dialogue and consensus aimed at establishing the 'settled will of the people'.

I also do not believe that it is possible to move from the current constitutional position to a final solution in one jump. Yes, I can see a situation developing over the next five years, especially post-Brexit, where Scotland could well be independent and exploration ongoing of a United Ireland, based on federal principles with two Parliaments north and south. Wales too must be ready hence my call for a Welsh Constitutional Convention forum.

I recommend we affirm:

·         A commitment to ensure increasing self-government for Wales as part of the wider nation-building process, and potentially to gain independence in due course, if desired by the people;

·         The continued need for close collaboration among the nations of Britain, notwithstanding the precise constitutional status of Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.

Of course, to progress this agenda, we need politicians who are unsatisfied with the crumbs of drip, drip devolution as regretfully has been the case hitherto. Brexit really does put the devolution settlement at risk. It is clear that over the last year new pressures are increasingly emerging which are threatening existing protocols and structures.

In 2018 we are a nation and territory ‘clinging-on’ in practically every aspect of our governance arrangements and, dare I say, national being. We need politicians who are capable of and willing to consider Wales as a land and nation in its own right, embracing all who live within the country. New organisational institutions, economic relationships and even mind-sets should be established and nurtured—all developed and promoted within a context of a reformed UK constitutional framework.

This vision demands politicians who appreciate the significance of diplomacy and statecraft skills, understanding that the bigger prize may still sit further along the road map in time, but it is also first and foremost important to put in place the necessary foundations to advance our nation-building journey and growth towards that greater self-government and sovereignty desired.

My advice is to attend to those short and mid-term opportunities and challenges as we steadily strive towards achieving the larger ambition.

A leadership election with important questions to face up to for Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru's leadership election is by far the most important development in recent decades for the party and quite possibly Welsh politics overall since devolution.

Indeed, it has been a year of internal party campaigns in Wales.

First up the Welsh Lib Dems, with Jane Dodd elected leader on an approximately 33% turnout of a 3,000 membership. A sad commentary on a party that has been for several years now struggling desperately to make any meaningful impact on the Welsh political landscape—unless you consider its lone AM Kirsty Williams's participation in the Welsh Labour government cabinet, distributing Labour budget monies.

Then UKIP Wales, a party in turmoil not only in Wales but across the UK for a couple of years, elected Gareth Bennett on a 60% turnout of its 900 members.

This week, on a 52% turnout, Paul Davies was confirmed as the Welsh Conservatives new leader. Intriguingly the party did not divulge the number of votes cast for the two candidates—I suspect it did not want to reveal the low number of party members in Wales.

Before the end of 2018 Welsh Labour will also elect a new leader, deciding soon whether it will dare to be democratic enough to move towards a one-member one-vote method of internal election. It is hard to believe that the question of one-member one-vote was one of the reasons why the SDP was formed in 1981! Labour has around 100,000 individual and affiliate members in Wales.
Two candidates have been declared, but the party would definitely benefit from a wider choice and certainly if the experienced Eluned Morgan and Huw Irranca-Davies were on the ballot paper too. But Welsh Labour has a unique and special way of arriving at the 'right' result its party power-brokers wish.

Now let's discuss the most important election ongoing—that is the Plaid Cymru leadership contest. I say it's the most important because Welsh politics needs reinvigorating, if not reawakening, and whilst I would dearly love to see the Welsh Lib Dems rise from their slumber, it is clearly apparent that central to the task of improving political democracy in Wales today is a more vibrant, inclusive Plaid Cymru.



There are three strong candidates, each with strengths and weaknesses.

Leanne Wood, the incumbent since 2012 has had highs and lows. In the televised leaders' hustings for the 2015 General Election she was effective enough and her Assembly victory in the Rhondda was impressive. But my strong hunch is that she has reached a point that confronts every leader in time—Leanne could well be past her political 'sell by' date. Even the policies she espouses hark to a different era, closer to my youth in over-centralised Britain rather than devolved Wales!

Then there is Adam Price, AM since 2016, but an MP in 2001 and for some reason unexplained and difficult to fathom stood down for the 2010 General Election. Maybe someone can shed a little light on this? He too has many strengths, being a strong performer, knowing how to catch the headlines and a deep thinker generally. But he is prone to shooting often from the hip with little strategy in mind—in Boris Johnson scattergun style.

Finally the new kid on the block, Rhun ap Iorwerth, who holds a range of media and other professional experiences before being elected as an AM in 2013. He is certainly an effective communicator and policy developer, with the ability to appeal to a wider audience beyond the present Plaid Cymru voter-base. Rhun is quite likely a more inclusive politician who would increase Plaid Cymru's membership from its current low point of about 8,000—incidentally, at a time when the SNP has over 125,000 members!

Now I am not a Plaid Cymru member but if I were, these are some of the key questions that I would be asking myself:

1. Which one of the three would be a clear break with the past, including the hard left 'socialist experiment' propagated by Leanne and Adam? Remember Adam's famous statement 'I was a socialist before becoming a nationalist'. It is apparent to me that their politics are rather similar and intertwined. Rhun also clearly has values of the left, but appears to have a broader base to his politics.

2. Is continuing with 'Labour lite' policies the way forward? This has seen the party more or less stagnate. With a Corbyn-led Labour party, Plaid Cymru will struggle to take votes from them across Wales. The last General and Assembly elections clearly illustrated the point—Labour came within less than a 100 votes of capturing the Arfon seat, desperately held onto by Hywel Williams MP, just.

3. How does Plaid Cymru break out from the greater cycle it has been trapped since 1974? Then it received 174K votes for Westminster elections, waiting until 2001 to achieve its highest support of 195K, before sliding downwards—apart from a modest improvement in 2015 (181K). In terms of percentage of votes in Wales, Plaid Cymru received its first significant outcome in 1970 (11.5%), thereafter struggling throughout the 1980s, then achieving its best performance in 2005 (12.6%), and declining to 10.4% in 2017.
For the Senedd, its best year by some distance was 1999, seventeen AMs with roughly 28% of the vote. 2007 witnessed a good recovery under Ieuan Wyn Jones, but by 2016 its share of the vote was 20% and with only twelve AMs elected—two of which are no longer officially in the party!

4. How does the party address the 'independence' question? Something in truth it has avoided since the days of Gwynfor Evans. I'll return to this again.

5. And finally, which one of the three candidates will represent ‘clear and much needed change’ with the ability to reach out to a much wider audience? It is indeed time for a more inclusive style of politics in Wales with a radical and reforming agenda.

I venture to suggest that the only leadership candidate who fits the bill is Rhun ap Iorwerth and its a politics I and others like me may even be attracted to.

Gwynoro yn 75 - Cyfweliad Dewi LLwyd

Dewi Llwyd ar Radio Cymru yn holi Gwynoro am rhai agweddau o’i fywyd –

Magwraeth, y capel a’r pentref, gwleidyddiaeth, Cymru a mwy