Sunday, 15 September 2019

The Plaid Cymru, Welsh Lib Dems and Greens Wales General Election 2019 Pact.

Never easy to negotiate but it’s the only way forward

Here’s my take on it

Prior to the Brecon and Radnor by election- when both Plaid Cymru and the Greens indicated that they were willing to stand aside and give the Welsh Lib Dems a free run - it was the correct decision, and without which I am not sure that Jane Dodds would have captured the seat.

Now there is speculation of a pending allocation of constituencies deal between the three parties for the forthcoming General Election, which is not that far away.

In the 1980s I was co-share of negotiating teams between the SDP and the Liberals for similar arrangements in the 1983 and 1987 General Elections and the Euro election in 1984. The agreements were relatively harmonious, although hard negotiated over. That was because party loyalties run deep and there were several constituencies where the decision was marginal and the lead party allocation could have been different. So there was an element of compromise and quid pro quo.

I am sure that is the situation in the current negotiations, if not more so.

So during last day or so I took it upon myself to come up with a suggested seat allocation between the parties.

My parameters were the constituency results  for the General Election 2010, which was probably the last general election held in ‘ normal circumstances’. By that I mean the General Election 2015 was one where the Lib Dems were severely punished because of the coalition years. The 2017 General Election was heavily influenced by  Brexit and tactical voting hence it became a two horse race between the Tories and Labour. Then I looked at the Senedd Election results of 2016 and the recent  Euro elections.

There are a few seats in the tables below that could have been allocated differently. Of course   Ceredigion is taken out of the equation because, let’s face it hell would freeze over before either Welsh Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru would agree to stand down.

I also had a difficulty in allocating seats to the Welsh Greens, as much as I agree with a great deal of what they stand for. Nevertheless, since there are seats that can be allocated either way – I have not included them in the tables below. 

They are

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Newport West - altho' was tempted to make WLD
Swansea East
Vale of Clwyd

Possibly they could be four constituencies where the Greens could stand.

 Group 1

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 8
       Plaid Cymru - 10
Brecon and Radnor
Cardiff Central
Cardiff North
Cardiff West
Cardiff S E and Penarth
Carms East and Dinefwr
Clwyd South
Clwyd West
Merthyr and Rhymney 
Ynys Mon

Dwyfor Meirionydd


Group 2

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 11
       Plaid Cymru - 6
Blaenau Gwent
Alun and Deeside
Cynon Valley
Newport East
Swansea West
Vale of Glamorgan





Anyway that’s my shot at it. Lets see what transpires.