Saturday, 12 September 2015

Saturday morning Sept 12th 2015 – the day has arrived!

Labour’s future and probably the course of UK politics will be known by Mid-Day
There have been three Labour leadership contest since the Second World War that have remained in my memory. All three were crucial to the future direction of the Labour Party.
After the retirement of Clement Attlee as leader the December 1955 party leadership contest saw Hugh Gaitskell defeat Aneurin Bevan. The struggle back in the 1950’s within the party was in many respects as it is today, should it be a party of the left, centre or right. Gaitskell’s time as leader was also characterised by factional infighting between the 'Bevanite' left of the Labour party led by Aneurin Bevan, and the 'Gaitskellite' right.
Throughout his life, Gaitskell remained a committed social democrat. He led an ardent group of followers inside the Labour Party – people like Roy Jenkins and Bill Rodgers – who eventually formed the breakaway SDP in 1981. In 1994, Tony Blair would take up many of the views of Gaitskell’s acolytes in a sort of ‘SDP Mark II’.
Then in November 1980, Foot defeated Healey to become Labour’s leader winning by a very small margin—51.9% to 48.1%. It was hinted many times that some MPs who went on to form the SDP voted for Foot instead of Healey! There is no need to explain why they took that tactical decision when their natural home should have been with Denis Healey. Soon thereafter around 30 Labour MPs left the Labour party and followed Roy Jenkins to create the SDP in 1981.
In November 1981, Tony Benn challenged Denis Healey for the deputy leadership of the party despite every attempt being made to urge him not to stand—as the SDP had only been formed a few months previously. Benn came within a whisker of winning with the margin being 50.4% to 49.6%. It has also been chronicled that Neil Kinnock had been instrumental in persuading some 30 or so soft-left MPs not to back Benn. Given the closeness of the race, these MPs tipped the balance in stopping Benn. One can only contemplate what would have happened to Labour with a Foot/Benn leadership and many gave Kinnock credit, at the time, for saving the party from possible oblivion. But I have no doubt that Neil had a wider agenda in sight—he saw an opportunity on the horizon because Foot was always going to be a one election candidate. Therefore, stopping Benn was crucial for him.
The three previous campaigns were indeed pivotal but nowhere near as crucial as the one that we have just witnessed. Jeremy Corbyn has been making most of the running during the campaign and has been receiving the majority of the media’s attention. It is ironic that Corbyn owes his presence on the ballot paper to the generous help given him by Andy Burnham’s supporters so that he could achieve the necessary number of MP nominations to allow him to stand for the leadership. His nomination, it was argued, would ensure a wider choice for the Labour membership between the differing wings of the party—left/soft left/centre-right. Maybe my description is a crude one, but it is not too far off reality.
It is probably very true that what has taken place over the summer has not only been an earth shattering experience for the Labour Party establishment but also to Corbyn himself. The huge crowds at his campaign rallies were for me reminiscent of the first 18 months of the SDP and both happenings have one thing in common and that is the emergence of the politics of hope. I am not going to rehearse all the conflicting arguments of this summer’s campaign only to emphasise that whoever wins the fact will be that the Labour Party will never be the same again.

Grassroots democracy has broken through and Corbyn has let out the genie from Labour’s lamp – it can never be put back again. Some month or so ago The Guardian newspaper carried a survey that included some 3,000 people asking in essence why people were turning to Corbyn, the results were very interesting but to me entirely obvious.

The responses in relation to the Labour party itself indicated total disillusionment and there were hundreds of comments similar to this one ‘what is the point of winning just to implement Tory-light policies’. Another theme repeated often was ‘Labour is not facing up to the reality that millions of lives have been blighted by Tory ideology and their agenda’. Then finally ‘what is the point of Labour if not to stand up for ordinary working people as well as the young, sick disabled or unemployed’.

In other words it is clear that the general party membership and supporters want major changes to party policy. Then on Corbyn himself most of the comments that were made can be summarised by the following two. ‘He is the only one talking about child poverty, homelessness, unaffordable housing, privatisation and progressive taxation’ and then ‘they (the four candidates) are all likely to lose the next general election but at least Corbyn will do it with some principles’

.     The political establishment are still trapped in the old politics and either they are oblivious to the emerging changes that are clearly evident in society or are trying to deliberately ignore them. They forget that 66% of the electorate either did not vote or voted anti –Tory and yet Mr Cameron, his party and the right wing press truly believe that all is well with the world.  Indeed only 24% of those entitled to vote made him Prime Minister under our crumbling, archaic electoral system.

Corbyn has captured and articulated far better than the other three candidates the public mood and the increasing clamour for more transparency; fairness; justice; freedom and equality; defending human rights and responding to the humanitarian crisis; pursuing a wider understanding of international development issues; the ever present apprehension over the environment and climate change and concerns over deepening world poverty and so on. It is interesting that these are issues that motivate Tim Farron and the Liberal Democrat too.


I have no doubt that there will a huge television audience tuning in about 11.0 o’clock this morning to view the outcome. I recall vividly doing the same in 1980 and 1981 – those two leadership contests had consequences which saw the Labour Party splitting and importantly thereafter only being in Government for 13 out of the following 36 years. We’ll just have to watch and wait! I have a feeling British politics is not going to be the same for a long while after this morning’s decision.