Sunday, 24 April 2016

Next 24 hours the latest Welsh Political Barometer Poll will be out

I predict movement in voter opinion in the Senedd election

In the main I have just been an observer of the goings on so far in this Senedd elections campaign.

However using a mixture of gut feeling, keeping an eye on the key issues dominating politics since the last poll and then watching the party leaders' interviews and debates on TV I have a hunch there will be movement in voter opinion.

Two key issues have dominated the headlines and they have been the steel industry and predictable the EU referendum.  Others have been the health service, standards in education and the North Wales ‘powerhouse’.

I think the two first issues have impacted on voter opinion and both have damaged the Conservatives, but to what extent Labour has benefited from this I am undecided over.  It is possible that Plaid Cymru could have gathered extra support over the steel crisis issue.

The biggest mistake made by the Tories was that by Andrew RT Davies over his support for an exit from the EU. I commented at the time in a blog ‘Oh Andrew what have you done’?  It might very well be that in Mid Wales in particular the Liberal Democrats could figure in the beneficiary column.

UKIP continue to have problems with ongoing divisions over candidates and some high profile disagreements. So I believe their support will have dropped some more.

Turning to the Leaders’ contribution on television – just like in the General Election hustings the women party leaders have undoubtedly come over better.  The Green Party leader has impressed and Kirsty Williams’s performances have been on balance better than Leanne Wood. Sadly these days the Liberal Democrats lack the broader firepower whereas Leanne has the advantage of a stronger campaigning team across Wales.

Also having watched some of the S4C programmes Plaid Cymru dominates over the other parties – but how much that will be of benefit to them is anyone’s guess.

The interesting seats will probably remain Cardiff North and Central, Llanelli and as an outside bet Ceredigion. I have followed Liz Evans’s campaign on social media and certainly she seems to be making an impact.

After saying all that the people who follow my Blog will have noted that the biggest impact on voter opinion in Wales is not the Welsh based media but that which emanates from London. 

So that aspect has always got to be borne in mind.

So my prediction for tomorrow’s Welsh Barometer Poll that voters are on the move!

Support for Labour rather static although they should be seeing an increase , Conservatives will have dropped further as will UKIP; Plaid Cymru will be a clear second; the Liberal Democrats and the Greens also will see an increase in support.  

Time will tell!