or will
it be rekindled at the political parties’ annual conferences this autumn…
The question of the Future
of the UK Union had been gathering a strong head of steam over the last three
years especially.
It had kicked-off following
the outcome of the Scottish Referendum in September 2014, and the promises made
by the then Prime Minister, David Cameron, as well as the leaders of the Labour
and Liberal Democrats parties to devolve further powers to the Scottish
Parliament in Holyrood. These, more or less, have now been enacted.
Then there was the Wales
Bill which caused a significant amount of controversy, particularly in relation
to the reserved powers aspect and the defeats in the Lords over the
transference of more powers concerning transport, policing, broadcasting and
water.
Intermixed had been the 2015
General Election and the EU Referendum of 2016. Both of which, for differing
reasons, provided unexpected results, with the latter leading to the
resignation of a Prime Minister and the emergence of Theresa May.
The result of the EU Referendum
further focussed the minds of devolutionists, federalists and others in favour
of independence on the question of the UK’s future and its prospects for
survival.
Over the last two years,
many powerful voices have joined the constitutional debate, notably the First
Minister Carwyn Jones, the former PM Gordon Brown, Lord David Owen and, a long
time supporter of a powerful Welsh Parliament, Lord Elystan Morgan.
Indeed, the various
constitutional challenges faced were explored in this article titled ‘A
Constitutional Convention to discuss future arrangements for the UK’ which
appeared on the Institute of Welsh Affairs’ website in March 2017.
The momentum was such that
the Labour Party also came out strongly in favour of a Constitutional
Convention, as witnessed by the event held at the Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff
earlier this year which I was fortunate to attend. Additionally, Jeremy Corbyn
spoke in favour of these developments at the Scottish Labour Party Conference.
Then in Wales, an emerging non-partisan
and all party group called Yes Cymru has been building momentum in support of independence,
producing a booklet on the issue. By the way, I was honoured to have been asked
to speak at three of their rallies in Carmarthen, Cardiff and Swansea over the
last year.
Simultaneously, since last
autumn, several significantly thorny Brexit issues have appeared centre stage, including
the High Court/Supreme Court hearings and the enactment of Article 50.
Therefore, in the past 9
months, the debate over the future of the UK Union has been intensifying upon
Brexit.
However, the PM whilst
breathing in the beautifully rarefied mountain air of Snowdonia one weekend, emerged
in London on a Monday morning to announce a snap General Election – despite
having promised publicly on at least five occasions not to do such a thing.
She saw the chance – 20
points ahead in the polls, a seemingly dysfunctional Jeremy Corbyn, and a
considerably weakened Liberal Democratic party.
The temptation was too much…
But as Wilson always used to
say, ‘a week is a long time in politics,’ and to also quote Macmillan on the question of what shapes
politics ‘events dear boy events’.
Without recounting the full extent of events,
the ‘strong and stable’ Theresa turned out to be ‘weak and feeble’ whilst the
seemingly ineffective Jeremy became transformed with substantial crowds
attending his rallies. I had not witnessed such rallies since the 1950s with
people like Aneurin Bevan speaking.
So we have a minority
government.
Now the sub plots of that
election result will test the commitment, mettle and determination of devolutionists,
federalists and all others engaged in the constitutional debate.
Firstly, the UK has returned
to two party politics with a vengeance. Over 80% of those who voted supported
the two old ‘establishment’ parties.
The third force was weakened.
Even in Scotland, mainly through the campaigning tactics other parties, the SNP
lost 20 seats.
In Wales, the Labour Party’s
fear of a disastrous collapse with accompanying Tory gains of about nine or so seats,
as indicated in the early-May opinion polls, just evaporated. Welsh Labour rightly
breathed a huge sigh of relief on election night.
Plaid Cymru advanced a
little, but nowhere near expectations, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats are now struggling
to remain on the Welsh political landscape.
So where are we today?
The stance of the SNP is
broadly clear.
Will the Labour party
regather its forces for change and pursue the matter of a Constitutional
Convention and a Federal UK at their conference this autumn? Or has the
satisfaction of winning thirty six extra seats, ensuring a stranglehold over
Wales and achieving a limited but important comeback in Scotland dampened their
demand for reform?
In Wales, what will be Plaid
Cymru’s strategy in the lead-up to their conference?
Then what of the Liberal
Democrats, the party of ‘Home Rule’, with its antecedents stretching back a
hundred years? Will they actually manage for once to discuss constitutional
change at their conference? In the days of the SDP/Liberal Alliance of the
1980s it was forever on the agenda. I made certain of that. The reality is that
over the last decade the matter has been sidelined, except for occasional references
in election-time manifestos!