Close result or otherwise – its Kamala Harries to win

The polls during the US Presidential election 2024 have been unusually, and to my mind unrealistically static for two months – almost as if the pollsters are afraid to make a mistake and go out on a limb.

Well I am about to do so.

Have been following the campaign avidly, ever since Kamala Harries became the Democratic party candidate. Yes she faced odds against her - a woman, black and hampered by being closely allied with the Biden administration. Trump has relentlessly exploited those three facts on a daily basis with incredible degree of exaggeration, venom and untruths and in the last week his speeches at time been pretty wild and incoherent.

Harries is far more intelligent, coherent, experienced via her previous roles as lawyer, senator and attorney general and has easily overcome his jibes, insults and increasingly vitriolic comments. More often than not laughing about him That was evident in the only debate they had and that experience was enough for Trump to pull out of another other  planned encounter.

Trump has obvious personal, behavioural, moral and legal failings that have been very well rehearsed for years - plus in 2024 he is a criminal running for President! But none of that bothers his cult followers, evangelicals, majority of white males and rabid Republicans. But over the last week there is an undercurrent of distrust, tiredness with his divisiveness, the lying and general behaviour pervading through. Witness his rallies and the dwindling attendance. People are getting tired of his divisive, violent rhetoric as well. In addition there has been open discourse concerning his mental state, memory recall and cognitive well being.

So I reckon there are sufficient cohorts of ‘soft’ and ‘sensible’ Republicans who just quietly go about their business and will not vote for him plus non- aligned and independent. It’s also a question of where will the republicans supporters of Vikki Haley and Liz Cheney go.

One final word about the polls - for weeks they have been showing that it’s a very tight race with little movement in the levels of support for either candidate. That to my mind is unreal and open to doubt. Things are never as static as that in election campaigns. Pollsters have been too scared to be at variance with one another. But of course we practically always forget there is a 3-5% margin of error in every poll.

In the last week lot of scrutiny has surrounded the causes of this. Key reason is polling in US is not that reliable because too many outlets (especially Republican ones ) have their own agenda – they are not truly independent pollsters. Raw data is often adjusted to try and accommodate the pollsters’ hunches etc. Well, my hunch is that ‘soft’ Republicans/independents/women are not openly admitting their support for Harries when responding to polling. It is interesting to note that although the pollsters have been asserting for weeks that the result is too close to call, in the last few days however commentators are leaning towards a Harries win – from a narrow electoral college win to something more significant than that.

 The importance of how women will vote in the election and the reasons for doing so is well rehearsed and they probably could well be the deciding factor.

 Trump if he is in danger of losing as the votes are counted will make the country go through hell as he did in 2020, probably more so, because 2020 gave him and his followers a template to refine.

 So all in all without explaining further - it’s Kamala Harries to win.

 If I’m wrong God help the US governing system and its people; Europe and the world as well. Trump has made it clear how vindictive and vengeful he is going to be.

 

 

Recollections of 1974 as covered in our new book ‘Only Three Votes’ – the Battle for The Political Soul of Wales in 1970s Carmarthenshire.

Three events – 

Oath of Allegiance in Welsh language

Speaking Welsh in Assembly of the Council of Europe.

President of the Day, Eisteddfod Bro Myrddin August 1974 – 50 years to the day

With the launch of the book ‘Only Three Votes’ by Parthian held on Aug 9 at Storyville, Pontypridd during Eisteddfod week it brought back to mind events described in the book.

I have always looked back with satisfaction and not a little pride on my endeavours to visibly promote Welsh language and culture in 1974.

Two of them caused some consternation and annoyance within the executive of the Carmarthen constituency Labour Party as well a number of Welsh Labour MPs’ at Westminster. The third caused concerns and anger within Plaid Cymru in the constituency.

Taking the Oath of Allegiance in Welsh February 1974 - covered on page 103.

For some years there had been claims that after winning the by election in July 1966 Gwynfor Evans had taken the Oath of Allegiance in Welsh on entering Parliament but that wasn’t the case. For information, without taking the Oath an MP cannot take part in Commons proceedings.

After the 1970 General Election there was an influx of Welsh speaking Labour Members from Wales so we sought permission to take the Oath in Welsh and again was refused. Tom Ellis and I in late 1973 approached the Speaker and Clerks of the House making the case why it was appropriate and right for the Oath to be made in Welsh after the next election.

So it came to pass that an election was held in February 1974 and I retained Carmarthen by ‘Three Votes’. This time the ground work had been prepared regarding the Oath in Welsh. So February 1974 was the first time that the Oath was taken in Welsh in Parliament and several Welsh MPs did so.

Speaking Welsh in the Strasbourg Assembly of the Council of Europe May 1974 – pages 153 to 156

I won’t record here how it came about and what was the reaction in the Assembly at the time or more importantly the reaction afterwards. Best to read the book! Suffice it to say the idea was the brain child of John Smith MP (later the former Labour Party leader who tragically died prematurely). What happened hit the main new headlines back in UK Reaction within the party executive in Carmarthen and Welsh MPs' was not that favourable. However the pilot of the plane that flew the British delegation back to London, who came from Llanelli, was delighted.

Been a source of immense pride that I was the first politician to speak Welsh in an European Assembly gathering.

President of the Day, Eisteddfod Bro Myrddin, August 9 1974 – pages 139-141 and 164-166

Fifty years to the very day I delivered my speech as President of the Day. The decision of the Eisteddfod Committee was criticized by Plaid Cymru in Carmarthen and they made every effort to get the invitation overturned. It was always going to be futile because for decades  it was a tradition that the local MP if he/she was Welsh speaking would be invited to address the gathering. Again I won’t record here the events, what were the expectations and the reaction afterwards. Best to read the book! Other than a snippet from the Western Mail correspondent

‘we were all packed into the pavilion to hear what was he going to say’ ... ‘and what will happen?’

Treasured pages from memory - life is like a book; it has numerous chapters

 Just as the source of the Rivers Severn and Wye go back a long way so does the Tory annihilation

The sad premiership of Theresa May and Brexit party infighting;

Brexit and Covid-19 displayed all of the clownish, irresponsible, law-breaking premiership of Boris Johnson

 And then came the Liz Truss catastrophe;

The calmer but weak premiership of Rishi Sunak, coping with a divided party, he stood no chance

This election is about the revenge of the voters.

The source of the River Severn, just like the River Wye can be found in the Cambrian Mountains  before flowing down  to the Severn Estuary well over 200 miles away. It starts in a peat bog in Plynlimon before finally reaching the Bristol Channel. The source and course of the Wye is not too dissimilar, albeit a shorter river of some 150 miles, and reaches the Severn Estuary in Chepstow.

I’ve used the analogy as a way of describing how and why the Conservative party and Rishi Sunak in July 2024 are , if the polls are right, facing a catastrophe on  4^th July. In many ways its not entirely his fault but he’s been caught up since 2015 in a shambolic Tory party. Indeed it can be argued that the problems first appeared in the Cameron/Osborne years 2010-16. Cameron’s austerity years and his complete failure to face up to the euro sceptics inside his party and Farage’s UKIP planted the seeds of early discontent.

So it was that Cameron agreed to an EU referendum – by common understanding it was supposed to be ‘advisory’ – but after the result was announced on June 23 2016 and despite a highly divisive result it quickly became ‘the will of the people’. From then on the dye was cast and not only the political parties faced divisions and acrimony so Britain was broken. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain and though Wales voted to leave it was only by a majority no bigger than the crowd at the Principality Stadium  Instead of Staying and fighting Cameron and Osborne did a bunk leaving poor Theresa May with premiership years totally dominated by Brexit and an acrimonious party that was split into several competing ‘tribes’.

The austerity years wrought havoc with peoples’ lives and coming on top of a general feeling that the nations, regions and communities had been left behind was a golden opportunity of Johnson, Gove, Farage et al to exploit and so they did ruthlessly and misleadingly. Even May and Truss, pro remaining in  the EU as was Boris Johnson until he realised this was the path to becoming Premier joined this bandwagon. Unachievable promises were made   https://www.politico.eu/article/15-things-uk-vote-leave-promised-on-brexit-and-what-it-got/ and people desperate for ‘salvation’ understandably fell for this false vision of a brave new world outside the EU.

Theresa May, hounded by the euro sceptics who were beginning to smell blood with Boris Johnson manoeuvring behind the scenes decided to call a general election in 2017 and it turned out to be a disastrous campaign for her and the party. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40237833. She carried on with the support of the DUP but over the next two years Theresa May's government was defeated on 33 divisions in the House of Commons over Brexit leading to the resignation of Theresa May as Prime Minister and the appointment of Boris Johnson as the new prime minister on 24 July 2019. His slogan was ‘lets get Brexit done’ ‘lhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/bombastic-boris-johnson-wins-huge-majority-on-promise-to-get-brexit-done.. Of course it is true to say that in the then opposition leaders Jeremy Corbyn (Labour) and Jo Swinson (Lib Dem) he was confronted by two inadequate leaders of their parties.

Johnson found it difficult to get ‘Brexit done’ in the early stages of his premiership so eventually he took the drastic step to divide the Tory party even more by sacking over 20 of his MPs from the party – and pretty important people too, many had served as Cabinet Ministers even tin Maggie Thatcher’s time. Now he was in a stronger position and eventually Britain left the EU January 1 2020 but not before Johnson had made so many false claims over the deal he and Lord Frost had agrred with Brussels. In September 2019 he controversially asked the Queen to suspend Parliament for five weeks in the run up to the Brexit deadline and was accused of having lied to her over his  reasons. Then  the Supreme Court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful.

By now, although there had been several examples of senior people warning the Tory party not to elect him as leader because of his character, untrustworthiness, deceit 9both in his personal and political life) it was becoming understood that those warnings were not without foundation. His former Head teacher revealed some early signs of his behaviour and character, then Max Hastings in a withering critique went further. Others followed suit including Chris Patten, former Chairman of the Tory Party and the last Governor of Hong Kong who wrote that ‘Boris confuses fact and fiction’.

Whilst the Brexit controversy was coming to its end game in November 2019  news broke of a potential pandemic – Covid 19 – discovered first in Wuhan, China. The first case documented in the UK was on January 31 2020.  It is not my intention to retrace the entrails of Johnson’s lamentable performances over the next couple of years, save to mention partygate and the inquiry into did he deliberately mislead Parliament that eventually brought his downfall.

On September 6 2022 Boris Johnson was forced to resign in pretty ignominious circumstance with the majority of the members of his government resigning, something like 60 in all  – led in part by Rishi Sunak. Finally after an initial flurry of candidates In a subsequent leadership election Liz Truss became PM and her economic policy ideas allied with the Chancellor Kwasi  Kwarteng wrought havoc on the financial markets and more. Her  premiership only lasted 49 days, forced to resign on October 25 2022 and her reign coincided with period of the Queen’s death and mourning.

So now we’re getting into the Sunak premiership that has lasted some 21 months. Enough has been pored over during 2024 so don’t intent to  pursue in this blog But his premiership has been during the highest level of inflation people have suffered in a long time, ever increasing NHS waiting lists, public services under severe pressure, the dire state of the public finances and the national debt.  

Its been a dismal 14 years, chaotic so often over the years especially after 2015. If the polling is accurate and Labour has a super majority its the voters’ revenge for at least 8 years.

By now the Severn and Wye rivers have reached the sea!  Yet so many issues have not covered including levelling up and some of Sunak’s broken promises on migration, stopping the small boats and more.

Probably should have selected the River Danube or the Rhine as my starting point1

What's happening with the Gambling watchdog investigation?

The Met Police have clarified their situation

What about No 10 and the Politicos - because of necessity that's where the source trail started

I know, experienced it in 1970 - ‘’go back home now Gwynoro, Harold is announcing on Monday (27th) a General Election for June 18)’’

Could there possibly be some dragging of feet going on over the general election betting scandal to avoid any further embarrassment to the PM and No10 before July 4?

One of #RishiSunak's protection team has already been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office and the #MetPolice have confirmed that a further 6 officers have been identified as having placed bets on the timing of the elections.

On the political side it is also known that his former Parliamentsry Secretary, 4 other Tory election candidates/HQ staff and a Tory Senedd member in Wales are under investigation by the gambling watchdog over alleged bets on the timing of the General Election. Intriguingly Sunak’s PPS ( Craig Williams) and the Tory Senedd member (Russell George) represent the same constituency (Montgomeryshire).

However the #GamblingCommission are endeavouring to find out who else knew or were told in advance when the general election would be held.

By the very nature of things extensive discussions and analyses would have been going on for some time prior to May 22nd the day the PM announced that July 4 was to be election day. He did not just wake up on morning of 22nd and at the spur of the moment decided ‘tell you what think I’ll hold an election in six weeks time - July 4’

It’s not how it works. So people on the inside obviously knew and were in the loop. But the question is who were they and did they pass on the date via the old pals network with a nod and a wink!

In an attempt to get it clarified reported that the Gambling Commission has spoken to Rishi Sunak’s chief of staff (Liam Booth-Smith) to try and clarify who within the PMs circle at No10 and Tory HQ could have known about the date of the General Election before it was announced. Sunak has so far refused to publicly reveal who was in on the decision.

So issue now is could there possibly be more than just the 6 Tory politicos already identified in on all this. In fact there are reports in the media suggesting the final number could be up to 15 election candidates/officials. But this has not been confirmed yet.

As always time will tell.

For clarification the Gambling watchdog role is focused on allegations of cheating, while the Police are investigating could there be additional offences involved such as misconduct in public office - a more serious charge.

Tell you how I know how it works

In 1970 I was Labour candidate for Carmarthen and the Research and Communications Officer for Labour in Wales then based in Charles Street, Cardiff.

The Regional Secretary Emrys Jones, his two assistants and me were first given the nod that after the good results for the party in the May 1969 local elections, PM Harold Wilson was going to call a General Election for sometime mid June - but we were not given the exact date then. However this enabled us to book advertising hoarding sites, start preparing election material and alerting the 36 constituency party officers to start their own preparations.

On May 24-26 the Welsh party held its annual conference in Llandudno and I travelled up on the Friday. Later the evening of the 24th the General Secretary of the party, Ron Hayward, was present and he pulled me on one side - ‘’go back home now Gwynoro, Harold is announcing on Monday (27th) a General Election for June 18)’’ . The party regarded Carmarthen as a must win seat in Wales.

I immediately rang Ivor Morris, the party’s agent in the constituency asking him to call the Executive Committee to an urgent meeting for the Sunday afternoon to finalise our campaign. So at least 30 plus party members in Carmarthen were told the election date before Wilson actually announced it on the Monday. Daresay many others in key marginal seats across the country would have had the same inside information passed on to them.

So definitely it is more than highly probable a lot of Tory people would have known before hand of Sunak’s July 4 general election date - most certainly his PPS Craig Williams, the two Tory HQ officers that have been named by the gambling watchdog and one or two others inside No 10.

Its what they did with the information that matters.

To achieve a Sovereign Wales requires even more determined and relentless campaigning. BUT ....

Enough has been said and written, time for positive action

Time to set up something akin to citizen assemblies and most importantly establish a Wales Standing Convention.

Since the 1970s I was a strong advocate of a Federal U.K. and Home Rule for Wales. Joined Yes Cymru very early on in 2015 when membership was only starting to grow. Used to attend the AGMs. In 2016 spoke in two of its earliest rallies when the crowds back then were couple of hundred. The growth in membership and especially the unquestioned success of the AUOB rallies is a source of inspiration.

But these days it is also clear that the devolution settlement is not at all secure and since Brexit attempts made to undermine devolution. Then we have Boris Johnson calling it a ‘mistake’. Labour on the other hand speaks with a forked tongue and in recent times very ambivalent over future powers for the Senedd. The party's general election manifesto is pathetically weak on this, whilst in a recent interview the Shadow Welsh Secretary, Jo Stevens was pretty dismissive as well. I fear some return to a greater role for the Welsh Office in her thinking - that will be significant set back.

So things seem to be at a crossroads - with a high danger that nothing much will happen. The silence over what to do with the recommendations of the Independent Commission on future governance of Wales speaks volumes.

During the last decade I have been an advocate for a free and Sovereign Wales within the community of nations. The challenge is how to achieve this in the 21st century

Reality is that it took best part of 100 years for U.K. governments to recognise Wales as a land and nation and to even reach the point of a Senedd that has less powers than Scotland or indeed Northern Ireland.

What is more our Senedd is encumbered with financial and legal constraints placed upon it by Westminster. Looming over everything is the Sovereignty of the UK Parliament, conventions and legal rulings, and the absence of a written constitution.,

To achieve a Sovereign Wales will undoubtedly require even more determined and relentless campaigning.

Making a brief contribution in AUOB rally in Carmarthen is an honour and not only will it be a source of memories past but to impress on a much younger audience to hold firm to the faith; as post General Election Wales will face many challenges over its future governance but there also will be significant opportunities too as the years unfold. Building a structure and develop a roadmap that will lead to a Sovereign Wales is now essential. Engaging with the people on a wider forum than rallies.

We have gone through a five year period where the future of Wales has been talked about ad nauseum. There are more than sufficient articles, podcasts, videos, campaign rallies, Blogs, booklets, books and even Commission reports available for public consumption. In essence there is no more to be written or said on the various options to be considered over the future governance of Wales. What is urgently required now is ACTION.

Its time to set up something akin to citizen assemblies and most importantly establish a Wales Standing Convention to move forward. Bringing together representatives from civic society, local government, trade unions, academic institutions, voluntary and charitable organisations, and political organisations.

Issue is do we have the will to do this?

 

Pages from the book ‘The Forgotten Decade’ about the creation of S4C

 As S4C enters its 40^th year ‘Y Swn’ is a timely contribution to the story.

The film, ‘Y Swn’, giving an account of the events which led up to establishing S4C has attracted a lot of attention in recent days. It is timely as S4C celebrates its 40^th year.

There had been a campaign going on since the 1970s with the Welsh Language Society prominent in that campaign, as was Gwynfor Evans and several of us in the Labour Party at the time.

It was the struggles in Westminister that were the crucial ones however and in Alun Gibbard and my book The Forgotten Decade (pages 49-53) we gave a flavour of went on.

Here it is:

Northern Ireland, indirectly, played into the formation of a Welsh language TV channel for the first time in the nation’s history. There had been a campaign for many years for better provision of television programmes in Welsh and a channel dedicated to Welsh programmes. As the discussions to form such a channel seemed to be heading for the rocks Gwynfor Evans threatened to go on hunger strike if the political discussions led to a rejection of a channel for the Welsh language, as was looking likely in September 1980, the time that he made his threat. 

Six months later, a major hunger strike campaign was started in Northern Ireland when IRA activist Bobby Sands led a mass hunger strike protest in the Maze prison. Bobby Sands died after 66 days on hunger strike, and a total of nine other IRA prisoners died as the result of the same action. Gwynfor Evans’ continuing threat to go on hunger strike then was made at a very sensitive political time for such action.

The discussions for a Welsh channel, in Westminster terms, went back to 1979. Both Labour and the Conservatives had promised a Welsh language fourth channel in their General Election manifestos of that year – a year, of course, that also saw the devolution referendum. After that election, however, things changed. The new Home Secretary, Willie Whitelaw, decided that there would not be a dedicated Welsh channel after all. The existing situation of opt-outs for Welsh programmes on BBC and HTV would continue. 

This situation was seen as highly inadequate by those who campaigned for a Welsh channel. Welsh opt-out programmes were usually at anti-social and inconvenient times, seen as a sign of marginalisation and disrespect. The decision to keep that status quo sparked another period of protest. There were sit-ins in TV studios, refusals to pay the TV licence and the attacking of TV masts.

 By May 1980, Gwynfor had enough of the political obstinacy from the Tories and promised to go on hunger strike if the decision wasn’t reversed. At the National Eisteddfod of that year the Eisteddfod Court asked Cledwyn Hughes, Sir Goronwy Daniel and the Archbishop of Wales to form a deputation and to intervene in the whole sorry saga.

Within the Conservative party, however, there were also those who were lobbying for the party to keep its 1979 manifesto promise: Welsh Secretary Nicholas Edwards and, in particular, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Wales, Wyn Roberts. In his autobiography Right From The Start, outlines the discussions that had been happening within the cabinet to enforce a U-turn on the fourth channel for Wales. These took place long before Gwynfor’s September declaration. 

Roberts, however, conceded that Gwynfor’s hunger strike threat had taken the publicity initiative away from the Tory government. 

They have licked us hollow in the publicity battle because they have the more newsworthy story. We can only react to it now.

In his entry for September 20, he says that on return from a short holiday in Germany, he sees that:

the government – that is Willie and Nick – has completed their oval turn on the 4th channel issue and declared that the television licence fee must be raised by a £1 to finance the project. ‘Silly Willie’, proclaimed the Sun newspaper – but Gwynfor can now feast rather than fast.

In The Whitelaw Memoirs (1989), the then Home Secretary refers to this change of mind:

Eventually, Cledwyn Hughes, whom I regard highly, led an important delegation to see me … They persuaded me that it would really cause much bitterness and anger in Wales if we persisted with our plan. I thus persuaded my colleagues that we should abandon it. A Welsh Television Channel of its own was, therefore, established offering 22 hours of Welsh Language programmes each week.

John Morris goes on to say in his memoirs:

it was the prospect of defeat in the Lords that proved to be the final turn of the screw necessary to get the government to revert to its Welsh manifesto commitment to establish the core of a national service for the Welsh speaking minority. As far as I was concerned, and Nick Edwards too, conscience played some part in it. We did not like breaking promises and fought against it as hard as we dared.

The House of Lords, he explains, was set to oppose the Broadcasting Bill, which included the Government’s opposition to a fourth channel for Wales. He ends this chapter that deals with this issue on a reflective note:

There was more than a tinge of sadness in the whole business for me because the Conservative government gained minimal credit for the establishment of the Welsh service. The hero of the hour and for many years to come was the gladiator-cum-martyr Gwynfor, with his will and determination. The beneficiaries were his nationalist followers, and the lesson of his example was not lost upon them. Our Welsh language policy would have to be rebuilt against the background of suspicion and hostility among those it was intended to serve.

The decade’s first year drew to a close with differing prospects for Plaid, Labour and the Conservatives. At this point, Plaid could be regarded as the most buoyant of the three, having secured, as they saw it, the formation of a Welsh Language television channel. Sianel Pedwar Cymru, S4C, started on November 1, 1982, a day before English Channel 4.

How to achieve becoming ‘the world’s most exciting economic zone’?

Well, according to PM Rishi Sunak get ‘‘privileged access’ to EU single market

In his desperation to get the DUP and the Tory euro sceptics to support the Windsor Agreement Sunak has got very over excited and thereby inadvertently' but quite unbelievably, has let the cat out of the bag.

The event in Windsor was rather effusive and the warmth of feeling between them was palpable. Sunak and von der Leyen (EU President) know each other well from their years in Stanford University, USA. Hence her addressing him  ' dear Rishi'.

Northern Ireland he said is in a unique position of the entire world –‘having privileged access not just to the UK home market, the fifth biggest in the world, but also the EU single market.’

Sunak went on:

 ‘’ Nobody else has that. No one – only you guys only here...I can tell you, when I go around the world and talk to businesses, they say: ‘That’s interesting’’.

 ‘’It’s like the world’s most exciting economic zone.”

 The irony is of course that before Brexit all of U.K. benefited from this ‘privileged access’.

 The question now for him and indeed the leader of the Labour party, Keir Starmer, is why not extend this ‘fantastic deal’ to the rest of the U.K.?

 Instead over three years the Tory government has erected immense barriers to trade between the UK and the EU. Its impacting on imports and exports, hurting investment and has contributed to significant labour shortages in several sectors of the economy. A whole range of businesses farmers, fishermen, across Britain have had to cope with all sorts of trade barriers, form filling and red tape.

 The economy has already taken a hit and businesses have suffered, losing trade and business opportunities.

 Studies show that by the end of 2022 the UK economy was 5% (£31bn) smaller than if the UK had not left the single market. The Office for Budget Responsibility says Brexit will have a long-term effect of cutting UK GDP by 4%. The Financial Times says such a decline amounts to £100bn in lost output and £40bn less revenue to the Treasury

So, the PM having opened Pandora’s box, it is now time to redouble the effort to re-join the single market so all the nations of the U.K. can achieve this ‘privileged access’’ to the huge EU market.

Time was of course that Sunak extolled the virtues of the Northern Ireland Protocol deal negotiated by Boris Johnson claiming that Brexit depended on it. Anything else would have been a sell out. For three years he saw nothing negative with the deal.

In the House of Commons on Monday however he boasted how he had managed to change the protocol highlighting in detail what had been wrong with the 2019 deal. More or less admitting it all had been a rubbish idea from the outset.

But that’s politics I suppose. 

Sixty years this weekend I was in Murrayfield for Scotland v Wales

 All the struggles just to watch the most boring game in history

The beginning of 1963 witnessed heavy snow and freezing conditions since the worst of all winters which was in 1947. I recall the 1947 winter vividly with snow on the ground for four months. It was just as bad in 1963 but nothing on quite the same scale.

Wales and England was only played at Cardiff Arms Park in the January because some 15 tons of straw had covered the playing field for quite a while to protect it from the snow and the severe frost.  In the final days of 1962 a severe blizzard had spread throughout south Wales.)

 In the hours before the game dozens of volunteers helped to clear the straw just beyond the touchlines. It was said that the temperature was minus 6 degrees during the game.   Wales lost 13 -6 in a game that was the only sporting event that took place in the UK on that day. In truth it should not have been played, parts of the playing surface were frozen and the referee tried to get the game called off, but there were some 55,000 in the ground.

I was there being a rugby fanatic and a student at Cardiff University.

A fortnight later, February 2^nd, Wales was due to meet Scotland at Murrayfield. The weather was still bad – snow and frost – but the pitch had an underground heating system so there would be no doubt about whether the game would go on.

In any event along with a few of my student friends I was sat in the common room of what was known as the new Arts block of the University. Somehow the topic of the game in Scotland came up and more surprisingly the conversation about going to see the game came up. This was the Thursday afternoon.

Anyway it ended with a bet between me and William ‘Nash’ Bevan, a school mate from Gwendraeth Grammar days as well. The bet was who had the courage to thumb it to Edinburgh. Matters got out of hand and both of us foolishly agreed to meet at 4.30 that afternoon outside Cardiff castle and go from there.

I remember going to my digs in Grangetown to collect some stuff, all the while desperately hoping that ‘Nash’ would not be there by the castle. My heart sank – he was.

So off we went along Queen Street and then on to Newport Road trying to catch a lift. Eventually a jeep stopped with an open back. We sat there until Birmingham, desperately cold. When we were dropped off in the centre of the city the first thing we did was to go into a telephone kiosk to plan what to do next, but more importantly warm up. Why a kiosk and not a cafe or pub – don’t ask me!

By now it was around eight in the evening so off we went again and this time got a lift from a lorry. I am not sure which way we went – was it towards the North West or the North East of England. In any event around eight in the morning we were dropped off not too far from the Scottish border. We came across a pub, and went in, explained to the landlord what had happened and he was kind enough to let us wash etc and also cooked us a breakfast. We stayed there a while to recover and warm up.

As we were about to leave a man came in for a break and it turned out he too was going to Edinburgh so he offered us a lift in his rather big car I seem to recall.

By mid afternoon we were in Edinburgh. Now came the decision what were we going to do about accommodation for the Friday night. But first we took a stroll along Princes Street. Then to my surprise we came across a group of Tumble RFC players and got chatting and going to a pub with them. (In the 1962/63 rugby season I was playing for them every Saturday – travelling back home from Cardiff on the Friday night each time).

When they found out what we had done they thought we were nuts and in any case just asked me ‘why didn’t you come up with us on the bus?’ I explained all this was a spur of the moment decision with no thought given to the implications.

One fortuitous thing happened. They said you can stay in our hotel. The management won’t know because half of us won’t be back in the hotel until the morning.  So it turned out. When we were having breakfast on the Saturday morning in came about ten of them from their ‘night out’.

They also suggested we could travel back with them, but that was not going to be until the Tuesday, so again we foolishly declined.

So on to the game on a bitterly cold day. Two spare tickets had been given to us by the players.

What a game! There had been nothing like it before or since. In fact the rules on kicking straight to touch was changed as a result. There were 111 lineouts. It was a war of attrition between two sets of forwards. Clive Rowlands (nicknamed ‘Top Cat’) did not pass once to David Watkins the outside half – he just kicked to touch from every scrum and lineout. He set out to win, as Wales had not won in Murrayfield for over a decade, and in that he achieved his aim. Wales won 6-0.

We had already decided to start on our way back after the game. This time we would go via Glasgow. The snow was starting to fall as well. We picked up a lift pretty soon after starting from Edinburgh and reached the outskirts of Gretna Green. I just recall us hanging around in a bus stop shelter for quite some time. Snow falling and being bitterly cold.

The journey back to South Wales is vague in my memory now except arriving in Newport mid Sunday afternoon. But the irony was ‘Nash’ and I were so tired and cold we caught a train to Cardiff!

So there we go, not quite as described by Max Boyce in one of his famous songs The Scottish Trip

 

 

 The Forgotten Decade: Political Upheaval and Industrial Strife in 1980’s Wales.   Gwynoro Jones. Alun Gibbard.

The 1980s - a decade of considerable upheaval and change which saw industrial tension during the Miners Strike, social unrest and riots on the streets, seismic political changes and Cold War nuclear tension. This book is a chronological account of political, economic and social events that unfolded in that decade.

This is a powerful and relevant reminder of the pain and turmoil of a decade that changed many of our communities forever, of the roots of still current inequalities, and of the obstacles that our political system places in the way of progressive change. It also benefits from being the account of an engaged and passionate witness. 

Geraint Talfan Davies.  Chairman Institute of Welsh Affairs 1992-2014.

Margaret Thatcher won the General Election on 4 May 1979, the day the Eighties began. The Conservatives were creating their new order. Labour had to respond to the electoral failing and the damage done to them by a series of strikes. From this Labour unrest, the SDP was formed, the first major new party in British politics for decades.

The main section of The Forgotten Decade is a year-by-year account of the 1980’s, from the 1980 of Thatcher’s early days through to the 1989 of the fall of the Berlin wall, political and social changes in Wales are documented, with extensive use of newspaper cuttings from Gwynoro Jones’ personal archive. This section is book-ended by a look at the decade leading up to the 1980’s and an analysis of what has happened in the decades since the ‘80’s.

With the publication of The Forgotten Decade, videos that were made in 2016, and have remained 'private' on Gwynoro's YouTube channel since then are now being made 'public'.

All of them were recorded live and are uncut or edited. No pre recording preparation took place for any of the 1980s videos, it was just Gwynoro's on the spot recollections of events. Because of that, inevitably there will be some errors of fact regarding personalities, events, dates and timelines. The authentic record however is chronicled in the book.

This video is about events in 1984/5 and concentrates mainly on happenings in Carmarthen when Dr Roger Thomas, the then MP, faced considerable pressures and turmoil. 

This book provides us with an informative and eyewitness account of unfolding events of The Forgotten Decade of Welsh political evolution. Written in a semi diary style the book is ideal as a memory jogger for those that lived through this period themselves or for historians or the general readers who wish to learn exactly what was happening at the heart of Welsh politics in the 1980s.

Professor Russell Deacon

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Forgotten-Decade-Political-Upheaval-Industrial/dp/1953109632/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=1980s%20gwynoro%20jones&qid=1663093306&sprefix=%2Caps%2C52&sr=8-2&fbclid=IwAR1xYuAIDqncPq_83U1AXwVnXU9F7pOjhvPJdT1RAmODKvp1icA1HZUR-1M

Also available of Wales Books Council site

Former broadcaster and politician Wyn Thomas reviews The Forgotten Decade

This book serves as a reminder of events in the 80’s that need to be understood and recalled if the current situation in Wales, and the UK, is to be understood properly. 

I’m in the ninth decade of my life and some are recalled more easily because of events and individuals that gave that period a historical identity. The 1940’s were my first years, the era of the Second World War and the social revolution of the Attlee government,  Then the 50’s, the time when rations gave way to the Tory slogan saying “We never had it so good” and they were the era of ‘rock and roll’. This was followed by the ‘swinging sixties’, which for me was a time of trade union and political activity and while being one of the group invited to recommend the Welsh Labour party’s devolution policy I first met Gwynoro Jones, the co-author of the book ‘The Forgotten Decade’ and then Labour’s Research and Public Relations officer at Transport House, Cardiff. He immediately struck me as an intense, inspirational, determined and likeable young man. 

The 70’s started with a general election when, surprisingly, the Labour Leader, Harold Wilson, lost to the Tory Leader, Ted Heath. Not surprisingly I failed to be elected in the Montgomeryshire constituency. The disappointment was eased with the news from Carmarthen that Gwynoro, after a bitter battle, had beaten the President and idol of Plaid Cymru, Gwynfor Evans. Mr Evans had himself caused a political shock in a by-election in Carmarthen immediately after the 1966 General Election, when Labour had won a sweeping victory, when he won the seat to become Plaid Cymru’s first elected Member of Parliament. I was persuaded not to pursue a career in the House of Commons, but to maintain my interest in current affairs by becoming a journalist in broadcasting. The 70’s was a decade offering much to discuss from the failures of Heath, the miners strike, blackouts, strikes leading to the ‘winter of discontent’ and the beginnings of the Thatcher era – all discussed in the book

Then we get to the 1980’s, a decade described in this book by Gwynoro and his writing partner Alun Gibbard as ‘The Forgotten Decade’. At first glance this is a very surprising title for a period which saw the Falklands war, marriage of Prince Charles to Diana Spencer, the miner’s strike and the fall of the Berlin wall, establishing the Welsh language television channel, S4C. But it will mostly be remembered as the decade that launched Thatcherism, when Margaret Thatcher became the first female prime minister, a forceful, idealistic, free-marketeer and dedicated anti trade unionist. She took on the NUM and won a year long strike. It was ten years when Wales faced changes that were as great as the start of the industrial revolution which brought the heavy industries of coal, iron, and slate with new populations inhabiting new towns and villages. Pits, iron works that established those 200 years ago.  Come to think of it, perhaps Gwynoro and Alun were perhaps correct in their choice of title, with all that upheaval who would want to remember such a decade.

This book serves as a reminder of events in the 80’s that need to be understood and recalled if the current situation in Wales, and the UK, is to be understood properly.

There are libraries that could be filled with books about events and people from the 1980’s, but this one is different. It is not an objective history account of ten important years as recalled by one person, Gwynoro Jones. His experience as a researcher has given him the advantage of collecting an archive of papers, journals, notes and press cuttings that give access to minutiae of records of this decade. His much respected co-writer the BBC journalist and author, Alun Gibbard, will also have access to archive material that adds to the historical accuracy of the book.

Gwynoro retained his Carmarthen seat by 3 votes, after five recounts, in the February General Election of 1974 before losing to Gwynfor Evans in the other General Election of that year; it was the end of his parliamentary career, but not of his political ambitions.

During his parliamentary career he was Parliamentary Secretary to Roy Jenkins the Home Secretary. His relationship with Jenkins continued after the 1974 loss of power when Roy Jenkins was in Brussels as President of the European Commission.

Jenkins and Gwynoro had become disillusioned with the leftward direction of the Labour Party and they discussed how a new third force in British politics could be established. By 1981 Gwynoro helped to establish the SDP, the Social Democratic Party with other former prominent Labour figure figures, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, Dr David Owen and Bill Rogers, ‘The Gang of Four’.

They supported electoral reform, European integration and a decentralised state. They would also have gained the wrath of many in the Labour Party by rejecting the possibility of trade unions being too influential. These policies would be attractive to members and supporters of the Liberal Party and developing a policy of co-operation between the two parties could often become vexed and eventually to see the end of the SDP as an independent political party.

The story of establishing and the demise of the SDP in Wales and the UK through Gwynoro’s eyes and experience dominate this book, perhaps in too much detail at times, give us a detailed history of this important period through the eyes of one of Wales’ most prominent, influential and easily recognised political commentators. Thanks to his vast archive of notes, cuttings, minutes of many, many meetings, broadcasts, and clear recollections we are given a chronological and lively journey through the 1980’s which is very revealing about important events, the personalities involved and the internecine fights that led to the establishing and the ending of the SDP. Newsprint photographs of newspaper cuttings and events litter the book, but sadly the quality of reproduction spoils some of them.

Two matters that run through the SDP story in the book is the emphasis on how the SDP in Wales kept the aspiration of devolution and an Elected Assembly for Wales at the top of their agenda – when the labour party and Plaid Cymru ignored the topic after the drubbing in the 1979 Referendum. The other was the determination of the party’s Welsh members to secure a clear, separate voice from the party’s London base. Often it led to direct conflict between Gwynoro and David Owen.

Gwynoro will describe himself as a “Welsh radical” rather than a socialist, but his regard for devolution and a form of independence for Wales, his social conscience and regard for his fellow beings make him into a person, as this book shows, a person that would have added a great deal to the benefit of Wales should he have been able to align his ‘radicalism’ with a political party that has influence and power.

Those familiar with Gwynoro will be aware of his strong convictions and readiness to share them. In the 19^th century he would have been a reforming, non-conformist preacher performing sermons that would get his congregations shouting “clywch, clywch” and “diolch iddo”. The SDP enjoyed his oratory skills and in this book we can all enjoy the ‘hwyl’ that he brings to his own history.