Friday 16 October 2015

Still ‘steady as she goes’ six months on - but we are now in a transitional phase

The voters overwhelmed by having to make judgements on so many serious issues,  the emerging new politics of Corbyn and then trying to sort out ‘spin’ from ‘fact’

‘Spin’ is defined as the actions of a person ‘who tries to forestall negative publicity by publicising a favourable interpretation of actions’

It has often been the case throughout my experience of politics since the 1960’s that when people’s mood is about to change there is a long period of calm, opinion polls remain somewhat static and it gives the appearance almost as if the public are disinterested. But that is not so what is taking place is that there is a lot of uncertainty and indeed confusion in our body politic with much reflection going on over the state of our country, what is taking place within it and of course in Europe and the wider world.

I have no doubt that the average person is trying to fathom out which party or organisation is giving them the truth on so many crucial issues and decisions that have to be taken over the coming year or so. In other words they are seeking to sort out fact from spin.

The public are also trying to come to terms with the massive change that is emerging in the style and content of political rhetoric. Whatever your view of Corbyn is he is without doubt changing, in front of our very eyes, the old established order of how politics has hitherto been played. He doesn’t play the game as it has been played throughout our lifetimes. He comes over as an ordinary person, not into spin and media image, not over- fussed about party discipline and yet he is quietly confident because he knows that the mass ranks of the Labour membership and affiliate supporters are with him. So when a handful of his MPs in the Westminster party don’t toe the line it doesn’t ruffle him but it certainly excites the media and other politicos who live in a ‘bubble’.

Indeed there is evidence that he is beginning to win the public over to his style of approach such as Prime Minister's Questions.  Although on that he that can still improve – play the man in front of him not just relying on his pre –planned approach.   

Whilst all that is going on the public are probably perplexed and are trying to work out what is going on inside the media, in other words what is their agenda? There is clear bias in reporting and commenting on events and their style of questioning is so very different when dealing with Labour and SNP. I don’t expect the right wing press to be even-handed but with programmes such as Daily Politics, Newsnight and Question Time I do.

It is so obvious that the media fails to be even handed in their interviewing (particularly in relation to Corbyn, McDonnell and the SNP). Then there is an obvious imbalance in coverage with an uncontrollable urge to jump on any Farage bandwagon and what he is up to whilst at the same time imposing almost a complete news blackout on Farron and the Liberal Democrats. So I am not surprised that in so many opinion polls there is a good percentage of don’t knows when polled about which party are they supporting, opinions on Europe, how is Jeremy Corbyn performing and the like.

Since the General Election in May political opinion has not changed much in the UK and the same goes for Scotland and Wales for that matter.  There have been minor shifts in opinion but it has all been at the margins.

We are in the early throes of what will be a tumultuous and game changing period. Matters like how will the two new party leaders perform – both of them with differing challenges to address and overcome, what will be the final opinion fall out from a very regressive July Budget and the related major changes envisaged in the reform to Welfare. Added to all that is the rapidly emerging issue as to whether the continuation of austerity is an economic necessity or a political weapon and finally there is Osborne’s Fiscal Charter.

Constitutionally there is the ever present problem of the governance of Scotland and Wales and the pending upheaval that is on the horizon over English Votes for English Laws. A much wider constitutional issue for people to come to an opinion on is going to be the question of ‘In or Out of Europe’. So there are worrying questions in people’s minds over the future of the UK Union and the European Union.

But there is more we are at the early stages of making crucial decisions on replacing Trident, the Syrian and other conflicts are not abating and indeed probably worsening. Voters are struggling over coming to a judgement as to whether the bombing campaign in Syria is having a positive or negative impact and then there is the turmoil and the activities of IS in the Middle East. As if that isn’t enough along comes Putin with his actions over the Ukraine and Syria and calculating the fall–out from all that is not in any way straight forward. Of course embroiled in all of this is the biggest humanitarian crisis since 1945 which the European powers are woefully struggling to cope with and indeed the general public in terms of their emotions and opinions.

So taking all these together there is little wonder that there is confusion, reflection and uncertainty amongst vast swathes of the public. Usually the trend has always been that if in doubt the public tend to remain with the status quo and this it has done now for six months but it is my hunch and contention that this will soon begin to change.  

Traditionally the party political season usually sees quite significant shifts in opinions but not this year and the reason for that in my view was that the public was curious about how would the decimated Liberal Democrats perform, what sort of calamities would befall the Corbyn led Labour Party and how would the Tories react to their first majority Government since the days of John Major in 1992 and of course what of UKIP. 

So they discovered that the Liberal Democrats remain in recovery mode, Labour was jubilant and somewhat detached from the threats of divisions within, UKIP was completely obsessed, as expected, with the pending Euro referendum and the  associate topic of immigration whilst the Tories just indulged in gloating, displaying a strong streak of ruthlessness and single mindedness with large doses of ‘spin’ 

I was at the Liberal Democrats conference where there was record attendance boosted by the influx of new members. I found that many in the party continue to be in denial over the root causes of last May’s disaster. However there is little doubt the party’s corporate heart is in the right place on welfare and social justice, human rights, the humanitarian crisis, Trident and Europe.  However it continues to struggle with the legacy of the coalition years and getting to terms with its relative impotence at Westminster with the consequent lack of media interest. It has indeed a long road to travel and also faces competition from a Corbyn led Labour party that will try and steal some of the Lib Dems clothes.

Farron and Corbyn are leaders to the liking of the respective party membership. The two delivered effective speeches albeit the styles were quite different and they delighted their respective followers. It was interesting however to note that several common themes ran through their speeches in relation to social justice, welfare, poverty, housing, humanitarian crisis in Europe, the threats to human rights and the pending trade union legislation.

Labour was in buoyant mood as if cocooned from the incessant attacks upon it by the right wing press and many broadcasters. In fact it resembled many of the grass roots conferences of yesteryear and their hero was now the leader. This was Labour as I recall it in my younger days fierce in its attacks on the Tories on welfare, human rights and the economy. The phrase that ‘austerity is a political weapon’ certainly resonated with the delegates. But clearly lurking underneath the surface are a few divisions, notably on Trident and public ownership but I dare say in time even Europe.

There is unease in some quarters of the party about whether Corbyn’s radical change of direction in certain policy areas such as the economy as well as his new approach and style to politics will resonate with the floating voters. No doubt there will always remain a number of MPs and party grandees who are unhappy and will always work behind the scenes to undermine Jeremy Corbyn.

The Tory Conference was one of crass triumphalism to the point of arrogance. The party chairman was loud in his praise of party members that had been loyal in the difficult years of the Coalition government. Not a word about the contribution of Mr Clegg and his troop of MPs or of the Liberal Democrats that had sacrificed almost everything. No for the Tories Clegg was only a vehicle to achieve their objective and a few of us had seen that from early on. There was even a passing boast over how they had won Lib Dem seats across the country naming quite a few of them in the process. Now that’s gratitude for you and a lesson for any third or fourth party for the future!
   
Listening to Cameron and Osborne in the media one would have thought that they had a majority of a hundred. Both referring to the clear mandate received in May from the voters. ‘Clear’! it is not much of a  mandate to speak of and they are only in power because our out-dated voting system is struggling to cope with multi-party politics and as a result our fragmented democracy is creaking.


I started by suggesting that we are in a period when the public are genuinely confused  It is indeed little wonder with an estimated 3 million families about to be worse off by up to £1,000 a year as a result of the tax credit cuts and with 30% of families in the UK struggling. Yet the Tories continue to ‘spin’ how great everything is, declaring themselves to be ‘progressives’, the champions of the ‘working people’, campaigners for ‘social justice’ and the ‘scourges of poverty’ At times it could even make me confused!.