Saturday 5 September 2015

What if Europe fails on this humanitarian crisis?

Cameron has put Britain’s close connection with universal human rights in doubt behaving like Pontius Pilate
I am back on to Harold Wilson's truism again that ‘a week is a long time in politics’. It is fascinating how the appalling humanitarian crisis inside the European Union (EU) has completely overtaken David Cameron’s efforts to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU. That is now well and truly on the back burner and probably will remain there for quite some time. This crisis which is of such immense proportions that it has caused the internal machinations, problems and arguments going on in the Tory party over Europe to be put well and truly on to one side.
What is more the Prime Minister is facing a terrible dilemma over this crisis. On the one hand he knows full well that UKIP is watching his every move and is snapping away at his heels on all immigration and asylum matters. Then on the other hand he will be very much aware of the wider implications should he not be seen to be cooperating with his European counterparts and be willing to share some of the burden. Hitherto, he is refusing to play his full part other than funding the refugee camps and latterly being willing to take in some of the UK Syrian refugees that are inside those camps. The reality facing him will surely be that if the UK does not take its fair share of the refugees/migrants that are already in Europe, then how on earth does he expect European leaders to help him out over his desire to renegotiate aspects of the UK’s relationship with the EU?  But that topic will have to wait for another time. 
No one can deny that the European Union (EU) is now in the middle of the most desperate and extremely serious crisis than at any time in its existence. Over the last decade in particular the 28-countries that form the EU, and the 19 countries within it that form the euro zone, have come face to face with severe difficulties that are testing its unity. Indeed, it is not unreasonable to question whether the original vision of the founding fathers has been over-stretched, certainly when considering the inclusion of eastern European countries within the EU so soon after the end of the Soviet Union. 
It is becoming increasingly evident that just having an economic and currency union imposed on sovereign countries is never going to be sufficient. In the 1970's people like Ted Heath and Roy Jenkins did believe that a political union was ultimately essential for the EU project to become effective and flourish. They were often accused by opponents of the then ‘Common Market’ as not being open about their true intentions which was to create a political as well as an economic union. Many of us saw that the ultimate move towards a political union would result in a much needed counterbalancing power in the Western World against the over-dependency on the USA – certainly militarily. So there were frequent references made to the need for a Federal Europe with a democratically elected President, a common defence and foreign policy and indeed a European army. I continue to broadly hold that view and in many ways it is a road that will have to be travelled one day because the current EU institutions lack essential coherent and integrated democratic mechanisms. However that proposition brought a vehement negative reaction from many quarters especially the USA, organisations such as NATO and also political parties in countries such as the UK. Thus it was quietly cast aside. But there remain a number of powerful European voices that see the creation of a Federal Europe as an essential step to ensure the successful survival of the European dream.  
In the good times the lack of some kind of political union caused no problems but in recent years, with the escalating difficulties, the absence of an over-arching decision-making democratic institution ends up with chaos. Therefore, when serious challenges occur such as the financial crisis, followed by the Greek collapse and now the enormous refugee/migrants’ humanitarian crisis, it is apparent that most countries ultimately act in their own self interests.
The European Union is quite unique because it is one economic region that has sought to merge prosperity with social justice and it has been a formula that has been successful for almost fifty years. But it all came to an end after the 2008 financial crisis.
Since then the EU has been fighting recessions; dealing with a financial crisis and busted banks; struggling with double-digit unemployment and tens of millions of jobless young people as well as trying to resolve the endless crisis in Greece. So the decades of increasing prosperity and growth has been replaced by stagnation and worsening economic conditions in some parts of Europe. By now the proposition that the EU can be a reliable prosperous economic entity is beginning to lose credibility. As a result, we are witnessing in many parts of Europe, including the UK, the increase in popularity of anti-EU and anti-euro political parties and movements.
The current refugee/migrants’ crisis is of a totally different dimension and complexity than the one unleashed by the financial crisis in Europe over the last three years. Then, the Greek economic crisis threatened the existence of the Euro zone but the European Central Bank and the IMF, in the end, seem to have saved the day. But for how long continues to be in doubt.
This time, however, the spectre looms of the EU institutions shattering under the weight of a present crisis where so many of its member states are pulling and pushing in differing directions. So the European ideal after the second world war of creating a community of shared goals, vision, welfare and burdens is in some disarray.
The numbers are already staggering – Europe is seeing the largest influx and internal movement of people since the end of the Second World War. About 350,000 people have entered this year, with Italy, Greece and, now, Hungary, bearing the brunt of the mass arrivals. In August alone, 50,000 refugees/migrants reached Hungary. Germany is expecting to see 800,000 to a million arriving in their country. These are staggering figures. Meanwhile Cameron on the other hand parades around like Pontius Pilate.   
In addition around 3,000 people have died so far this year in the Mediterranean. This week, the world was shocked by images of a three-year-old Syrian boy, whose lifeless body had washed up on a Turkish beach. He drowned when his family tried to reach the Greek island of Kos. But child deaths have been routine among those making the treacherous voyage to southern Europe from Libya and Turkey.
In total, four million people have fled Syria (1.8 million to Turkey, 1 million to Lebanon and 600,000 to Jordan) and nearly eight million more are internally displaced. So there are millions of refugees and economic migrants from conflict areas in the Middle East and Africa lining up to get in to Europe.

Europe is having a refugee/migrants’ crisis because of its geographical proximity to the countries from where these refugees and migrants are fleeing from. In many ways the whole situation is full of irony because it is the West’s interference for over 25 years in the countries of Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya as well as its ambivalence over Syria that has partly contributed to this humanitarian catastrophe.
  
The EU’s reaction to the crisis has, all too predictably, been chaotic, contradictory, near-hysterical and sometimes mean-spirited; therefore heightening the crisis and highlighting an ugly truth – that the union has no mechanism to address these challenges, to ameliorate the suffering and to stem some outright bigotry. This has become more evident in recent days as the UnitedNations Refugee Agency is urging the adoption of a ‘common strategy’ to replace the existing ‘piecemeal’ approach. The EU, it says, is at a ‘defining moment’.
Now, the social justice side of the equation is coming under pressure. Governments in many countries, especially along the Mediterranean frontier, are stretched financially and cannot afford to keep schools and hospitals intact, let alone cope with an influx of asylum seekers.
The crisis has brought out the worst in many allegedly fair-minded and compassionate politicians.  For instance David Cameron talked of “swarms” of migrants trying to “break into Britain,” as though migrants were barbarians at the gate. In recent days he is beginning to change his tune somewhat. More than a few EU countries are adopting an every-man-for-himself strategy as the refugee/migrants keep coming. Slovakia and Hungary have said that they will take only non-Muslim migrants. In our country, UKIP is probably hostile as well and want the UK to have nothing to do with any of it.  By the way it hasn’t gone unnoticed that Theresa May calls this huge humanitarian crisis merely as ‘events of this summer’ – how uncaring and heartless.
In recent days attention is also moving to the role of the Gulf States in this crisis and their apparent reluctance to take their fair share of refugees, although the overwhelming majority of the displaced Syrians are Sunni Muslims. Other countries such as Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt, that have been open to accepting large numbers of displaced Syrians, are seeing their fragile ethnic and religious balances challenged.
Already, the Schengen open-travel agreement is under threat; even the German Chancellor Angela Merkel says so. When it was launched in 1995 and since expanded over the years, Schengen became the very symbol of the success of the European integration project.
But as the crisis unfolds, Italy and France have been calling for a review of Schengen.  Earlier the Dutch threatened to push Greece out of Schengen unless it prevented undocumented migrants from obtaining free passage to the rest of the EU. In recent days, Hungary has erected a 174-kilometre razor-wire fence on its border with Serbia in an effort to stem the flow of migrants and refugees to the EU.
More obstacles to free movement could go up as migrant paranoia spreads, potentially overcoming Ms Merkel’s best efforts to put an asylum and relocation strategy in place. If that paranoia results in the death of Schengen – that is the death of free mobility – the whole European project will be in serious difficulties. Coming on top of the financial crisis, the end of Schengen might be too much for the EU as it is currently constituted to bear.

There is no doubt the refugee/migrants’ crisis represents a pivotal moment for the EU and its shared ideals. Pivotal because the EU is in trouble on so many other fronts. There are only so many more blows it can take before faith in the European project diminishes. So it is time for great leadership and statesmanship.