Never
easy to negotiate but it’s the only way forward
Here’s
my take on it
Prior to the Brecon
and Radnor by election- when both Plaid Cymru and the Greens indicated that
they were willing to stand aside and give the Welsh Lib Dems a free run - it
was the correct decision, and without which I am not sure that Jane Dodds would
have captured the seat.
Now there is
speculation of a pending allocation of constituencies deal between the three
parties for the forthcoming General Election, which is not that far away.
In the 1980s I was
co-share of negotiating teams between the SDP and the Liberals for similar
arrangements in the 1983 and 1987 General Elections and the Euro election in
1984. The agreements were relatively harmonious, although hard negotiated over.
That was because party loyalties run deep and there were several constituencies
where the decision was marginal and the lead party allocation could have been
different. So there was an element of compromise and quid pro quo.
I am sure that is the
situation in the current negotiations, if not more so.
So during last day or
so I took it upon myself to come up with a suggested seat allocation between
the parties.
My parameters were
the constituency results for the General
Election 2010, which was probably the last general election held in ‘ normal
circumstances’. By that I mean the General Election 2015 was one where the Lib
Dems were severely punished because of the coalition years. The 2017 General
Election was heavily influenced by Brexit and tactical voting hence it became a
two horse race between the Tories and Labour. Then I looked at the Senedd
Election results of 2016 and the recent Euro elections.
There are a few seats in the tables below that could have
been allocated differently. Of course
Ceredigion is taken out of the equation because, let’s face it hell
would freeze over before either Welsh Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru would agree to
stand down.
I also had a
difficulty in allocating seats to the Welsh Greens, as much as I agree with a
great deal of what they stand for. Nevertheless, since there are seats that can
be allocated either way – I have not included them in the tables below.
They are
Carmarthen West and
South Pembrokeshire
Newport West - altho' was tempted to make WLD
Swansea East
Vale of Clwyd
Possibly they could be four constituencies where the Greens
could stand.
Group 1
Welsh Liberal Democrats - 8
|
Plaid Cymru - 10
|
Brecon and Radnor
|
Aberconwy
|
Cardiff Central
|
Caerphilly
|
Cardiff North
|
Cardiff West
|
Cardiff S E and Penarth
|
Carms East and Dinefwr
|
Clwyd South
|
Clwyd West
|
Merthyr and Rhymney
|
Llanelli
|
Monmouth
|
Neath
|
Montgomery
|
Ynys Mon
|
Dwyfor Meirionydd
|
|
Arfon
|
Group 2
Welsh Liberal Democrats - 11
|
Plaid Cymru - 6
|
Aberavon
|
Blaenau Gwent
|
Alun and Deeside
|
Cynon Valley
|
Bridgend
|
Islwyn
|
Newport East
|
Preseli
|
Swansea West
|
Rhondda
|
Torfaen
|
Ogmore
|
Vale of Glamorgan
|
|
Gower
|
|
Pontypridd
|
|
Wrexham
|
|
Delyn
|
Anyway that’s my shot
at it. Lets see what transpires.